by Kevin Rooney
irishborderpoll.com comes to Belfast as part of Féile an Phobail – Festival of the People.
Save the date, August 3rd, as we debate, Where are we at in the Irish Unity debate?
Key speaker – Professor Brendan O’ Leary.
Where are we at in the Unity project, momentum stalled or moving forward? Pro-Union academic Peter Shirlow argues we are not entering border poll territory. Commenting on the findings of his University of Liverpool and Sunday Times survey conducted in May this year he said, since 1998, support for Irish Unity has stayed largely unchanged. “Our survey shows a small decrease in support within the pro-Unity bloc, rather than the significant growth needed” to achieve a border poll he stated.
In contrast, the Pro-EU, ‘European Movement Ireland’ released the findings of its survey in May 2006 conducted by Amarach. The research found that if a referendum were held tomorrow on a United Ireland in the EU, 59% in the Irish republic would vote in favour and 22% against. In the six counties 63% would support a United Ireland as part of the EU while 29% are against, the survey revealed.
Bar none, every poll conducted in the republic indicates support for unity by a clear margin. But while support appears a mile wide, is it only an inch deep? A recent ‘Ireland Thinks’ poll revealed Irish Unity didn’t figure among the top 18 issues for the Republic’s voters while Taoiseach Martin has consistently ruled out a constitutional referendum for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, if we average out poll results in the North, pro-unity support is rising strongly and pro-union support declining.
Interpreting the polls are always hotly disputed on the constitutional question and spun in very different ways. No better example than last year’s 2025 ARINS research findings. Headlined in one newspaper as, “Irish Unity would be soundly defeated” in the North. But on the same day in another paper reported as, “Support for Irish Unity grows significantly”.
How do we cut through the spin, competing interpretations and narratives to work out what’s really going on? Are we getting closer to a United Ireland or not? Answering that question is the task we have set ourselves and our speaker in this debate -so join us. We are delighted to host Brendan O’Leary who will bring us up to speed on exactly where we are at in the Unity project – momentum stalled or border poll close?
Key speaker Brendan O’Leary
Respondents Kevin Meagher and two others TBC.
Brendan O’Leary is Lauder Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and Honorary Professor of Political Science at Queen’s University Belfast. The books he has published include Making Sense of a United Ireland and A Treatise on Northern Ireland. He will speak in his personal capacity.
Monday August 3rd, 11am, St.Mary’s College, Falls Road, Belfast. Free Admission. All are welcome.
by Kevin Rooney
irishborderpoll.com comes to Belfast as part of Féile an Phobail – Festival of the People.
Save the date, August 3rd, as we debate, Where are we at in the Irish Unity debate?
Key speaker – Professor Brendan O’ Leary.
Where are we at in the Unity project, momentum stalled or moving forward? Pro-Union academic Peter Shirlow argues we are not entering border poll territory. Commenting on the findings of his University of Liverpool and Sunday Times survey conducted in May this year he said, since 1998, support for Irish Unity has stayed largely unchanged. “Our survey shows a small decrease in support within the pro-Unity bloc, rather than the significant growth needed” to achieve a border poll he stated.
In contrast, the Pro-EU, ‘European Movement Ireland’ released the findings of its survey in May 2006 conducted by Amarach. The research found that if a referendum were held tomorrow on a United Ireland in the EU, 59% in the Irish republic would vote in favour and 22% against. In the six counties 63% would support a United Ireland as part of the EU while 29% are against, the survey revealed.
Bar none, every poll conducted in the republic indicates support for unity by a clear margin. But while support appears a mile wide, is it only an inch deep? A recent ‘Ireland Thinks’ poll revealed Irish Unity didn’t figure among the top 18 issues for the Republic’s voters while Taoiseach Martin has consistently ruled out a constitutional referendum for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, if we average out poll results in the North, pro-unity support is rising strongly and pro-union support declining.
Interpreting the polls are always hotly disputed on the constitutional question and spun in very different ways. No better example than last year’s 2025 ARINS research findings. Headlined in one newspaper as, “Irish Unity would be soundly defeated” in the North. But on the same day in another paper reported as, “Support for Irish Unity grows significantly”.
How do we cut through the spin, competing interpretations and narratives to work out what’s really going on? Are we getting closer to a United Ireland or not? Answering that question is the task we have set ourselves and our speaker in this debate -so join us. We are delighted to host Brendan O’Leary who will bring us up to speed on exactly where we are at in the Unity project – momentum stalled or border poll close?
Key speaker Brendan O’Leary
Respondents Kevin Meagher and two others TBC.
Brendan O’Leary is Lauder Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and Honorary Professor of Political Science at Queen’s University Belfast. The books he has published include Making Sense of a United Ireland and A Treatise on Northern Ireland. He will speak in his personal capacity.
Monday August 3rd, 11am, St.Mary’s College, Falls Road, Belfast. Free Admission. All are welcome.