By Kevin Meagher
I’ll give it another six months – the Northern Ireland executive and assembly. It isn’t going to last much longer, that much seems clear. Jockeying between the three unionist parties ahead of next May’s assembly election will see to that.
It seems to be their sole preoccupation a year out from polling day – a make-or-break moment for the DUP – with Jim Allister’s TUV offering a full-fat hardline alternative – and the UUP traditionally providing less doctrinaire fare.
Problem is, there simply aren’t enough unionist votes these days for each of them to prosper, so like the proverbial bag of ferrets they can’t avoid clawing and scratching each other for supremacy.
Take this example from the other day.
The Executive Office’s X account posted about Michelle O’Neill attending an Easter Rising commemoration in Dublin alongside Irish President, Catherine Connolly. But spying an opportunity to snipe, TUV leader Jim Allister demanded to know why an official account had been used to ‘promote republican terrorism.’
He blamed the DUP for not being robust enough with Sinn Fein. ‘They point to supposed Unionist safeguards and vetoes,’ he chided. ‘So who authorised this post? Will it now be removed? And if Unionists cannot prevent this, what exactly are they in government to do?’ This then deteriorated into a row, with the DUP’s Philip Brett responding:
‘While others prefer to shout from the sidelines, the DUP is focused on delivering in government,’ he protested. ‘It is disappointing that the TUV continue to use all their energy attacking fellow unionists. We are focused on continuing to build unionism and maximise co-operation. Hopefully one day, the TUV will join us on that vital endeavour.’
The real-world implication of intra-unionist faction-fighting is that governing Northern Ireland – and certainly making life more bearable for its inhabitants – is now going to take a back seat.
Especially as the compromises of office – and the fact they are playing second fiddle to a Sinn Fein first minister – provide a disastrous backdrop for the DUP’s election campaign. After all, serving in the executive necessitates compromise with the auld enemy – and they can’t have that.
Preferable, then, to walk out six months before next May’s elections? Provisions in the ‘New Decade New Approach’ document drawn-up after the three-year hiatus caused by the renewable heat incentive scandal, means there’s now a 24-week window where Stormont ministers can ‘remain in office in a caretaker capacity’ to allow ‘continuity of decision-making.’
Is this the plan?
Like a spinning plate on a stick, the executive will keep rotating, then wobble before it ever crashes to the ground. It offers the DUP the best of both worlds. During that six-months they get to ride their hobbyhorses, while challenging Sinn Fein’s – and still trouser their ministerial salaries!
Too cynical?
The fundamental weakness with the power-sharing settlement is that most unionist politicians simply don’t want to share power with nationalists. Politically, intellectually or morally. They never have and they never will. Yet they are belatedly realising that Northern Ireland is not ‘theirs’ any longer, as creeping demographic change sees the increasing (and entirely legitimate) ‘Irishisation’ of the place.
They can’t stomach that happening and so as well as falling out between themselves, their response is stoking pointless culture rows with nationalists, whether over their opposition to Casement Park, dual-language signs, or whatever. The sheer pettiness of it is mind-blowing. After all, the paradox for them is that this approach guarantees that Northern Ireland fails as well.
It reminds us of the sheer impossibility of anything approaching a decent politics ever being achievable. But unionists need Northern Ireland to work. They need it to remain outside the British Prime Minister’s in-tray. They also need it to cost a lot less. In short, they need the place to be normal.
Sinn Fein doesn’t. Despite the petty torments from the DUP and TUV, the shinnners never rise to the bait. They know that if Northern Ireland is deemed to be unworkable, they win – unionists are simply unreasonable and unyielding. But if things muddle through in the short-to-medium term, they also win. Evidence that Michelle O’Neill has succeeded in being a ‘first minister for all.’
Hence the possibility of scuttling the institutions ahead of next May. Being ‘unreasonable and unyielding’ plays well to the DUP’s tribe. It will be hard – if not impossible – for them to resist wrecking the institutions. But it’s a stroke that comes at a price. What is the incentive for United Irelanders to agree to restore the institutions after the elections? Especially if there’s more of the same to look forward to.
The general public is already mightily sick of the grandstanding. Stormont is already seen as a busted flush to as many as two-thirds of voters. If next May’s assembly and local elections results in a majority of the vote going to the United Ireland bloc, the British government suddenly has an almighty problem. The price of restoration won’t be about placating the DUP – it will be about illuminating the path to a border poll.
Having a reputation as the party that never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, I almost hope the DUP wreckers succeed.
By Kevin Meagher
I’ll give it another six months – the Northern Ireland executive and assembly. It isn’t going to last much longer, that much seems clear. Jockeying between the three unionist parties ahead of next May’s assembly election will see to that.
It seems to be their sole preoccupation a year out from polling day – a make-or-break moment for the DUP – with Jim Allister’s TUV offering a full-fat hardline alternative – and the UUP traditionally providing less doctrinaire fare.
Problem is, there simply aren’t enough unionist votes these days for each of them to prosper, so like the proverbial bag of ferrets they can’t avoid clawing and scratching each other for supremacy.
Take this example from the other day.
The Executive Office’s X account posted about Michelle O’Neill attending an Easter Rising commemoration in Dublin alongside Irish President, Catherine Connolly. But spying an opportunity to snipe, TUV leader Jim Allister demanded to know why an official account had been used to ‘promote republican terrorism.’
He blamed the DUP for not being robust enough with Sinn Fein. ‘They point to supposed Unionist safeguards and vetoes,’ he chided. ‘So who authorised this post? Will it now be removed? And if Unionists cannot prevent this, what exactly are they in government to do?’ This then deteriorated into a row, with the DUP’s Philip Brett responding:
‘While others prefer to shout from the sidelines, the DUP is focused on delivering in government,’ he protested. ‘It is disappointing that the TUV continue to use all their energy attacking fellow unionists. We are focused on continuing to build unionism and maximise co-operation. Hopefully one day, the TUV will join us on that vital endeavour.’
The real-world implication of intra-unionist faction-fighting is that governing Northern Ireland – and certainly making life more bearable for its inhabitants – is now going to take a back seat.
Especially as the compromises of office – and the fact they are playing second fiddle to a Sinn Fein first minister – provide a disastrous backdrop for the DUP’s election campaign. After all, serving in the executive necessitates compromise with the auld enemy – and they can’t have that.
Preferable, then, to walk out six months before next May’s elections? Provisions in the ‘New Decade New Approach’ document drawn-up after the three-year hiatus caused by the renewable heat incentive scandal, means there’s now a 24-week window where Stormont ministers can ‘remain in office in a caretaker capacity’ to allow ‘continuity of decision-making.’
Is this the plan?
Like a spinning plate on a stick, the executive will keep rotating, then wobble before it ever crashes to the ground. It offers the DUP the best of both worlds. During that six-months they get to ride their hobbyhorses, while challenging Sinn Fein’s – and still trouser their ministerial salaries!
Too cynical?
The fundamental weakness with the power-sharing settlement is that most unionist politicians simply don’t want to share power with nationalists. Politically, intellectually or morally. They never have and they never will. Yet they are belatedly realising that Northern Ireland is not ‘theirs’ any longer, as creeping demographic change sees the increasing (and entirely legitimate) ‘Irishisation’ of the place.
They can’t stomach that happening and so as well as falling out between themselves, their response is stoking pointless culture rows with nationalists, whether over their opposition to Casement Park, dual-language signs, or whatever. The sheer pettiness of it is mind-blowing. After all, the paradox for them is that this approach guarantees that Northern Ireland fails as well.
It reminds us of the sheer impossibility of anything approaching a decent politics ever being achievable. But unionists need Northern Ireland to work. They need it to remain outside the British Prime Minister’s in-tray. They also need it to cost a lot less. In short, they need the place to be normal.
Sinn Fein doesn’t. Despite the petty torments from the DUP and TUV, the shinnners never rise to the bait. They know that if Northern Ireland is deemed to be unworkable, they win – unionists are simply unreasonable and unyielding. But if things muddle through in the short-to-medium term, they also win. Evidence that Michelle O’Neill has succeeded in being a ‘first minister for all.’
Hence the possibility of scuttling the institutions ahead of next May. Being ‘unreasonable and unyielding’ plays well to the DUP’s tribe. It will be hard – if not impossible – for them to resist wrecking the institutions. But it’s a stroke that comes at a price. What is the incentive for United Irelanders to agree to restore the institutions after the elections? Especially if there’s more of the same to look forward to.
The general public is already mightily sick of the grandstanding. Stormont is already seen as a busted flush to as many as two-thirds of voters. If next May’s assembly and local elections results in a majority of the vote going to the United Ireland bloc, the British government suddenly has an almighty problem. The price of restoration won’t be about placating the DUP – it will be about illuminating the path to a border poll.
Having a reputation as the party that never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, I almost hope the DUP wreckers succeed.