irishborderpoll.com debate comes to Belfast at Féile an Phobail – Festival of the People. Mon, Aug 3rd.
Key speaker – Professor Brendan O’ Leary.
Respondents – Linzi McLaren and Kevin Meagher.
Where are we at in the Unity Debate, momentum stalled or moving forward?
British PM Andy Burnham said he is not interested in constitutional change or a referendum. In response to an ungracious tweet from TUV leader Jim Allister, the new Secretary of State for the North of Ireland Chris Bryant replied, “Jim I look forward to working with you for a strong Northern Ireland in a strong UK”. But after his first phone call with Sinn Féin leaders Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill, Chris Bryant admitted a border poll may come. But when, at what point and how soon will a Unity referendum come? A vague acknowledgement from a British politician is insufficient.
We want to know when a border poll will come? Answering this question is the challenge we’ve set Ireland’s leading expert on constitutional change Brendan O’Leary at our upcoming August 3rd Féile debate.
The premise is that reunification is more likely to occur within the next decade than at any juncture in the last hundred years. Demography is not destiny but tipping points have already been reached. 2030 will mark another decisive tipping point with the disappearance of a cultural Protestant majority in the North among those entitled to vote across all age-cohorts with the possible exception of those aged 85 and over. Tectonic plates have shifted across a range of indicators. For the older readers among you think back to when the Good Friday Agreement was signed. There were 13 unionist MPs in1998 and 5 nationalists made up of 3 SDLP and 2 Sinn Féin. Today there are 9 nationalist to 8 unionists with Alliance making up the final MP of the 18.
Other indicators suggest the direction of travel is a United Ireland. But some commentators insist support for maintenance of the Union remains much higher than that for Unity. Pro-Union academic Peter Shirlow argues we are not entering border poll territory. Commenting on the findings of his University of Liverpool and Sunday Times survey conducted in May this year he said, since 1998, support for Irish Unity has stayed largely unchanged. “Our survey shows a small decrease in support within the pro-Unity bloc, rather than the significant growth needed” to achieve a border poll, he said.
But the Pro-EU, ‘European Movement Ireland’ also released its survey findings in May 2006, conducted by Amarach. The research found that if a referendum were held tomorrow on a United Ireland in the EU, 59% in the Irish republic would vote in favour and 22% against. In the six counties 63% would support a United Ireland as part of the EU with 29% against, the survey revealed.
Every poll in the republic indicates support for unity by a clear margin. But while it appears a mile wide, sceptics suggest that support is only an inch deep. For example, a recent ‘Ireland Thinks’ poll revealed Irish Unity didn’t figure among the top 18 issues for the Republic’s voters. In addition, Taoiseach Martin has consistently ruled out a constitutional referendum for the foreseeable future and at his instigation ensured that Sinn Féin’s Irish Unity bill was voted down in the Dáil last month.
However in late July at a Dáil debate on the ‘Fiscal Implications of a United Ireland’ Tánaiste Simon Harris went out of his way to emphasise the opportunities and benefits of Unity pointing out how much Derry, Tyrone and Donegal have suffered from partition and the economic dividend what will flow to such areas from reunification. His party is also set to launch their blueprint for Irish Unity paper in the autumn.
If we average out the poll results in the North, pro-unity support is clearly rising while pro-union support declines. But interpreting the polls remains hotly disputed in relation to methodology, framing of the questions and accusations of bias. People’s preferences on the constitutional question continue to be spun in partisan ways. For instance last year’s 2025 ARINS poll results were largely framed according to the newspaper’s editorial line. “Irish Unity would be soundly defeated” in the North reported one pro-union publication. On the same day the Irish Times who commissioned the ARINS poll ran with, “Support for Irish Unity grows significantly”.United Irelanders know that to win an Irish Unity referendum it must be a multi-party project. Sinn Féin are the largest party in Ireland and the most energetic on the National question. If a United Ireland happens it will be helped to a referendum victory by Sinn Féin voters. But they will not be pivotal. The reality is the party is deeply distrusted in some quarters north and south. Our speaker Brendan O’Leary develops this point in his his latest book, ‘Making Sense Of A United Ireland’; “In the South, the decisive votes will be cast by those who currently support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, or other political parties, currently nearly two-thirds of the electorate. In the North, the decisive votes will be cast by SDLP and Alliance voters, and the neither/nors, those who don’t know’ right now, and by people who have ceased to be unionists”.
In our August 3rd Fèile discussion we will ask Brendan to elaborate on the above points, cut through the spin and tell us what he thinks are the main challenges and opportunities moving forward for United Irelanders if we are to win a Unity referendum.
Our key speaker will be joined by respondents Linzi McLaren and Kevin Meagher.
Key speaker Brendan O’Leary
Respondents Kevin Meagher and Linzi McLaren
Brendan O’Leary is Lauder Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and Honorary Professor of Political Science at Queen’s University Belfast. The books he has published include Making Sense of a United Ireland and A Treatise on Northern Ireland. He will speak in his personal capacity.
Linzi McLaren is a former Ulster Unionist Councillor. She served 18 years in the PSNI before entering politics, with a focus on tackling violence against women and girls. She is now a prominent commentator on political reform and the future of Northern Ireland. Linzi said recently, she no longer believes the Union offers the best future.
Kevin Meagher is a contributor to irishborderpoll.com and regular commentator across media on Irish and British politics. He is author of several books including, A United Ireland: Why Unification Is Inevitable and How It Will Come About. Never shy about coming forward Kevin says it’s not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ there will be a United Ireland.
Chair – Kevin Rooney Editor of irishborderpoll.com.
Monday August 3rd, 11am, St.Mary’s College, Falls Road, Belfast.
Free Admission. Everyone welcome.
irishborderpoll.com debate comes to Belfast at Féile an Phobail – Festival of the People. Mon, Aug 3rd.
Key speaker – Professor Brendan O’ Leary.
Respondents – Linzi McLaren and Kevin Meagher.
Where are we at in the Unity Debate, momentum stalled or moving forward?
British PM Andy Burnham said he is not interested in constitutional change or a referendum. In response to an ungracious tweet from TUV leader Jim Allister, the new Secretary of State for the North of Ireland Chris Bryant replied, “Jim I look forward to working with you for a strong Northern Ireland in a strong UK”. But after his first phone call with Sinn Féin leaders Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill, Chris Bryant admitted a border poll may come. But when, at what point and how soon will a Unity referendum come? A vague acknowledgement from a British politician is insufficient.
We want to know when a border poll will come? Answering this question is the challenge we’ve set Ireland’s leading expert on constitutional change Brendan O’Leary at our upcoming August 3rd Féile debate.
The premise is that reunification is more likely to occur within the next decade than at any juncture in the last hundred years. Demography is not destiny but tipping points have already been reached. 2030 will mark another decisive tipping point with the disappearance of a cultural Protestant majority in the North among those entitled to vote across all age-cohorts with the possible exception of those aged 85 and over. Tectonic plates have shifted across a range of indicators. For the older readers among you think back to when the Good Friday Agreement was signed. There were 13 unionist MPs in1998 and 5 nationalists made up of 3 SDLP and 2 Sinn Féin. Today there are 9 nationalist to 8 unionists with Alliance making up the final MP of the 18.
Other indicators suggest the direction of travel is a United Ireland. But some commentators insist support for maintenance of the Union remains much higher than that for Unity. Pro-Union academic Peter Shirlow argues we are not entering border poll territory. Commenting on the findings of his University of Liverpool and Sunday Times survey conducted in May this year he said, since 1998, support for Irish Unity has stayed largely unchanged. “Our survey shows a small decrease in support within the pro-Unity bloc, rather than the significant growth needed” to achieve a border poll, he said.
But the Pro-EU, ‘European Movement Ireland’ also released its survey findings in May 2006, conducted by Amarach. The research found that if a referendum were held tomorrow on a United Ireland in the EU, 59% in the Irish republic would vote in favour and 22% against. In the six counties 63% would support a United Ireland as part of the EU with 29% against, the survey revealed.
Every poll in the republic indicates support for unity by a clear margin. But while it appears a mile wide, sceptics suggest that support is only an inch deep. For example, a recent ‘Ireland Thinks’ poll revealed Irish Unity didn’t figure among the top 18 issues for the Republic’s voters. In addition, Taoiseach Martin has consistently ruled out a constitutional referendum for the foreseeable future and at his instigation ensured that Sinn Féin’s Irish Unity bill was voted down in the Dáil last month.
However in late July at a Dáil debate on the ‘Fiscal Implications of a United Ireland’ Tánaiste Simon Harris went out of his way to emphasise the opportunities and benefits of Unity pointing out how much Derry, Tyrone and Donegal have suffered from partition and the economic dividend what will flow to such areas from reunification. His party is also set to launch their blueprint for Irish Unity paper in the autumn.
If we average out the poll results in the North, pro-unity support is clearly rising while pro-union support declines. But interpreting the polls remains hotly disputed in relation to methodology, framing of the questions and accusations of bias. People’s preferences on the constitutional question continue to be spun in partisan ways. For instance last year’s 2025 ARINS poll results were largely framed according to the newspaper’s editorial line. “Irish Unity would be soundly defeated” in the North reported one pro-union publication. On the same day the Irish Times who commissioned the ARINS poll ran with, “Support for Irish Unity grows significantly”.United Irelanders know that to win an Irish Unity referendum it must be a multi-party project. Sinn Féin are the largest party in Ireland and the most energetic on the National question. If a United Ireland happens it will be helped to a referendum victory by Sinn Féin voters. But they will not be pivotal. The reality is the party is deeply distrusted in some quarters north and south. Our speaker Brendan O’Leary develops this point in his his latest book, ‘Making Sense Of A United Ireland’; “In the South, the decisive votes will be cast by those who currently support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, or other political parties, currently nearly two-thirds of the electorate. In the North, the decisive votes will be cast by SDLP and Alliance voters, and the neither/nors, those who don’t know’ right now, and by people who have ceased to be unionists”.
In our August 3rd Fèile discussion we will ask Brendan to elaborate on the above points, cut through the spin and tell us what he thinks are the main challenges and opportunities moving forward for United Irelanders if we are to win a Unity referendum.
Our key speaker will be joined by respondents Linzi McLaren and Kevin Meagher.
Key speaker Brendan O’Leary
Respondents Kevin Meagher and Linzi McLaren
Brendan O’Leary is Lauder Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and Honorary Professor of Political Science at Queen’s University Belfast. The books he has published include Making Sense of a United Ireland and A Treatise on Northern Ireland. He will speak in his personal capacity.
Linzi McLaren is a former Ulster Unionist Councillor. She served 18 years in the PSNI before entering politics, with a focus on tackling violence against women and girls. She is now a prominent commentator on political reform and the future of Northern Ireland. Linzi said recently, she no longer believes the Union offers the best future.
Kevin Meagher is a contributor to irishborderpoll.com and regular commentator across media on Irish and British politics. He is author of several books including, A United Ireland: Why Unification Is Inevitable and How It Will Come About. Never shy about coming forward Kevin says it’s not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ there will be a United Ireland.
Chair – Kevin Rooney Editor of irishborderpoll.com.
Monday August 3rd, 11am, St.Mary’s College, Falls Road, Belfast.
Free Admission. Everyone welcome.