by Kevin Meagher
The reason United Irelanders cannot get the British government to set out criteria for a border poll is nothing to do with Northern Ireland. If it was, they would have done so by now, keen, as they are, to offload the place at the earliest viable opportunity.
No, the real reason is Scotland. Given there is already a majority of the popular vote and seats in the Scottish Parliament for independence – and the issue is routinely on a knife-edge in opinion polls – all reasonable criteria that we might look to apply to Northern Ireland in judging whether a border poll is ‘likely’ already applies in Scotland’s case.
So, no border poll criteria will be forthcoming from Hilary Benn as the Scots would use the precedent in a legal challenge over not being given the same opportunity. In which respect, the fortunes of those campaigning for Irish unity and Scottish independence are now intertwined. We are in the same business; namely leaving the United Kingdom by consent.
But here’s the paradox: The Scots (more or less) have the numbers, but no mechanism to secure getting to a second referendum after 2014’s (55/45%) defeat. In contrast, United Irelanders don’t yet have the numbers but do have a route via the Good Friday Agreement’s guarantee of a poll.
In a few weeks’ time, this endeavour will take another significant step forward when the SNP romps home and, as polls predict, wins a clear majority in the Scottish Parliament.
Keir Starmer’s in-tray is expected to deepen several inches overnight, with significant losses for Labour in the local elections – including half of its councillors in London facing the chop – as well as the loss of its Welsh heartlands, falling to third place behind Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, as well as Reform.
What are we to make of this Celtic uprising in the devolved institutions? Is the United Kingdon breaking apart? Not quite, but its future will come into question like never before in coming months and years. Ater all, the first stage in securing major political change is being to be able to envisage it happening in the first place.
The prospect of Labour ‘losing’ Wales would have been utterly unthinkable even a couple of years ago and a powerful indicator of how the party’s heartlands feel badly let down. Decades after being on the receiving end of Thatcherite deindustrialisation, parts of Wales are still economically barren.
The situation in Scotland is different, with the SNP in power for the past two decades – with Labour’s ‘branch office’ unequal to the task of prising the SNP from office. Still, Westminster has no clue as to how it coaxes the genie back in the bottle. Asked recently if Scotland was going to get a second shot at independence, Wes Streeting, the English health secretary, said:
‘We’re not going to introduce chaos into the UK by having a referendum, absolutely not…Let’s just think about what the UK has been through. We’ve had the financial crash. We’ve had years of Tory austerity. We’ve had the catastrophe of Brexit. We’ve had the war in Ukraine. War in Iran. The covid pandemic. I think this country’s had enough of chaos.’
That’s a firm ‘no,’ then; but without a clear indication as to why. Are any of the measure of ‘chaos’ cited by Streeting the fault of the Scots? And is this a union of consent or coercion? Without a clearer justification about why an independence referendum cannot be countenanced, Westminster’s position appears threadbare and peevish. Time and pressure will have the desired effect for independence campaigners, it seems. But why does this matter to United Irelanders?
Most obviously because it’s hard enough to douse one constitutional fire, let alone two. And now, potentially, three with Wales starting to smoulder. The common denominator is that the Union is not working. It no longer represents a natural hegemony and voters are becoming accustomed to the thought of what lies beyond. So long subordinate to London rule, voters in the other constituent parts of the UK – proud nations each – are increasingly keen to find out.
And, ironically, the one thing that United Irelanders, Scottish independence campaigners and Plaid have in common with Brexiteers is that it is invigorating to stand on the precipice of building a new nation. Once you have internalised the prospect of change, perhaps it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy?
Either way, the more chatter there is about the future of the Union – and there will be plenty following the May elections – the more the prospect of constitutional change becomes normalised in British politics and the greater likelihood of a breakthrough.
Whether its Scotland or Northern Ireland first is moot. What is clear is that it isn’t going to be enough for Westminster to keep saying no.
by Kevin Meagher
The reason United Irelanders cannot get the British government to set out criteria for a border poll is nothing to do with Northern Ireland. If it was, they would have done so by now, keen, as they are, to offload the place at the earliest viable opportunity.
No, the real reason is Scotland. Given there is already a majority of the popular vote and seats in the Scottish Parliament for independence – and the issue is routinely on a knife-edge in opinion polls – all reasonable criteria that we might look to apply to Northern Ireland in judging whether a border poll is ‘likely’ already applies in Scotland’s case.
So, no border poll criteria will be forthcoming from Hilary Benn as the Scots would use the precedent in a legal challenge over not being given the same opportunity. In which respect, the fortunes of those campaigning for Irish unity and Scottish independence are now intertwined. We are in the same business; namely leaving the United Kingdom by consent.
But here’s the paradox: The Scots (more or less) have the numbers, but no mechanism to secure getting to a second referendum after 2014’s (55/45%) defeat. In contrast, United Irelanders don’t yet have the numbers but do have a route via the Good Friday Agreement’s guarantee of a poll.
In a few weeks’ time, this endeavour will take another significant step forward when the SNP romps home and, as polls predict, wins a clear majority in the Scottish Parliament.
Keir Starmer’s in-tray is expected to deepen several inches overnight, with significant losses for Labour in the local elections – including half of its councillors in London facing the chop – as well as the loss of its Welsh heartlands, falling to third place behind Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, as well as Reform.
What are we to make of this Celtic uprising in the devolved institutions? Is the United Kingdon breaking apart? Not quite, but its future will come into question like never before in coming months and years. Ater all, the first stage in securing major political change is being to be able to envisage it happening in the first place.
The prospect of Labour ‘losing’ Wales would have been utterly unthinkable even a couple of years ago and a powerful indicator of how the party’s heartlands feel badly let down. Decades after being on the receiving end of Thatcherite deindustrialisation, parts of Wales are still economically barren.
The situation in Scotland is different, with the SNP in power for the past two decades – with Labour’s ‘branch office’ unequal to the task of prising the SNP from office. Still, Westminster has no clue as to how it coaxes the genie back in the bottle. Asked recently if Scotland was going to get a second shot at independence, Wes Streeting, the English health secretary, said:
‘We’re not going to introduce chaos into the UK by having a referendum, absolutely not…Let’s just think about what the UK has been through. We’ve had the financial crash. We’ve had years of Tory austerity. We’ve had the catastrophe of Brexit. We’ve had the war in Ukraine. War in Iran. The covid pandemic. I think this country’s had enough of chaos.’
That’s a firm ‘no,’ then; but without a clear indication as to why. Are any of the measure of ‘chaos’ cited by Streeting the fault of the Scots? And is this a union of consent or coercion? Without a clearer justification about why an independence referendum cannot be countenanced, Westminster’s position appears threadbare and peevish. Time and pressure will have the desired effect for independence campaigners, it seems. But why does this matter to United Irelanders?
Most obviously because it’s hard enough to douse one constitutional fire, let alone two. And now, potentially, three with Wales starting to smoulder. The common denominator is that the Union is not working. It no longer represents a natural hegemony and voters are becoming accustomed to the thought of what lies beyond. So long subordinate to London rule, voters in the other constituent parts of the UK – proud nations each – are increasingly keen to find out.
And, ironically, the one thing that United Irelanders, Scottish independence campaigners and Plaid have in common with Brexiteers is that it is invigorating to stand on the precipice of building a new nation. Once you have internalised the prospect of change, perhaps it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy?
Either way, the more chatter there is about the future of the Union – and there will be plenty following the May elections – the more the prospect of constitutional change becomes normalised in British politics and the greater likelihood of a breakthrough.
Whether its Scotland or Northern Ireland first is moot. What is clear is that it isn’t going to be enough for Westminster to keep saying no.