I was on BBC Radio Ulster’s Talkback programme yesterday with the ever-excellent William Crawley, discussing the recent Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report, which compares living standards between Northern and southern Ireland.
Also on the segment was Dr Esmond Birnie, the University of Ulster economist and former Ulster Unionist MLA. As ever with Willliam’s broadcasting, it was an informative, good-natured exchange with both men, as we chewed the fat on the economic performance of the island.
Now while the ESRI report, written by respected academics, is characteristically dry and understated (as these things usually are) it nevertheless paints a dramatically diverging picture when it comes to the fortunes of the two Irish economies.
The headline is obvious enough: Southern Ireland is rattling along with an economy in rude health, while its northern neighbour limps along beside it.
So far, so familiar.
So I spent half an hour poring over the report and the most recent economic data, something I have not done for a while and thought I would jot down here, in no particular order, some key observations.
Hourly earnings are 36% higher in the south than in the North.
Dublin’s success in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) means that foreign-owned firms (often multinationals generating highly skilled, highly, remunerated employment) account for 28% of all jobs in the south, compared to just 13% in Northern Ireland.
People in the North are paying less income tax, per head, but this is simply because they earn quite a bit less than workers in the richer, more productive south.
And key public sector workers are paid more too.
Participation in the labour market is higher down south, particularly among young people, because there are more, better-paid jobs than there are in the North.
The North remains more reliant on its public sector, underlining the point that the south has a much more buoyant private sector.
Our old friend Brexit is also having an effect, with the volume of trade between Northern Ireland and Britain declining between 2015-2022, while the amount across the Irish border is steadily increasing.
In the North, 32% of people have a university degree (marginally below the UK average of 33%). Ireland, however, has 57% of its people educated to degree-level, the third highest level in the European Union, with the rate among 25-34 year olds hitting 65%.
The number of people in Northern Ireland with no qualifications is the highest in the UK at 27%. (The next worst area is the Yorkshire and Humber region on 16%).
Between them, Derry & Strabane and Belfast local authorities have more deprived communities than any of the other 374 local authorities in the UK.
More than a quarter of people in Northern Ireland (28%) suffer from the worst public health outcomes in the UK – with Scotland coming second with 23%.
The researchers also found that people in the Republic can expect to live two full years longer than people in the North (82.4 years to 80.4 years).
Scandalously, infant mortality rates in Northern Ireland are much higher than they are in the south – 4.8 deaths per 1,000 births compared to 2.8 in the south.
Ireland’s economy is predicted to grow by more than 4% this year, while the UK will be lucky to manage a quarter of that.
This is underpinned by sound public finances, with Ireland’s gross public debt at around 43%, while the UK’s is 101%. Ireland also has the second highest budget surplus in the EU.
The south has a corporation tax rate of 12.5%, half the UK rate of 25%.
I could go on, but you get the picture.
The gap across all these indices is stark and what quickly emerges is a tale of two Irelands. Yes, Dublin will be waiting anxiously to see what President Trump does with tariffs, but Irish ministers have ‘good problems’ to contend with. How to correct social policy imbalances, like a shortage of housing. Ireland will weather the medium-term turbulence in the US because its economic fundamentals are sound.
They consist of strong public finances, full employment, export-led growth, highlyskilled workers and Single Market access. In contrast the North has a few individual success stories, but the fundamentals are just not there to build economic self-reliance, with Westminster forced to pick up the tab so it can keep the lights on – in perpetuity.
We are nearly three decades on from the Good Friday Agreement and Northern Ireland is no nearer ‘washing its own face’ financially than it was back then. The place just doesn’t work, economically speaking, and never will do. It lacks scale, connectivity, investment and leadership.
In terms of its economic performance, life experiences and prospects, southern Ireland is steaming ahead and while the politics of Irish unity might be a tad problematic, the economic benefits of being part of this much more successful state are blindingly obvious.
I was on BBC Radio Ulster’s Talkback programme yesterday with the ever-excellent William Crawley, discussing the recent Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report, which compares living standards between Northern and southern Ireland.
Also on the segment was Dr Esmond Birnie, the University of Ulster economist and former Ulster Unionist MLA. As ever with Willliam’s broadcasting, it was an informative, good-natured exchange with both men, as we chewed the fat on the economic performance of the island.
Now while the ESRI report, written by respected academics, is characteristically dry and understated (as these things usually are) it nevertheless paints a dramatically diverging picture when it comes to the fortunes of the two Irish economies.
The headline is obvious enough: Southern Ireland is rattling along with an economy in rude health, while its northern neighbour limps along beside it.
So far, so familiar.
So I spent half an hour poring over the report and the most recent economic data, something I have not done for a while and thought I would jot down here, in no particular order, some key observations.
Hourly earnings are 36% higher in the south than in the North.
Dublin’s success in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) means that foreign-owned firms (often multinationals generating highly skilled, highly, remunerated employment) account for 28% of all jobs in the south, compared to just 13% in Northern Ireland.
People in the North are paying less income tax, per head, but this is simply because they earn quite a bit less than workers in the richer, more productive south.
And key public sector workers are paid more too.
Participation in the labour market is higher down south, particularly among young people, because there are more, better-paid jobs than there are in the North.
The North remains more reliant on its public sector, underlining the point that the south has a much more buoyant private sector.
Our old friend Brexit is also having an effect, with the volume of trade between Northern Ireland and Britain declining between 2015-2022, while the amount across the Irish border is steadily increasing.
In the North, 32% of people have a university degree (marginally below the UK average of 33%). Ireland, however, has 57% of its people educated to degree-level, the third highest level in the European Union, with the rate among 25-34 year olds hitting 65%.
The number of people in Northern Ireland with no qualifications is the highest in the UK at 27%. (The next worst area is the Yorkshire and Humber region on 16%).
Between them, Derry & Strabane and Belfast local authorities have more deprived communities than any of the other 374 local authorities in the UK.
More than a quarter of people in Northern Ireland (28%) suffer from the worst public health outcomes in the UK – with Scotland coming second with 23%.
The researchers also found that people in the Republic can expect to live two full years longer than people in the North (82.4 years to 80.4 years).
Scandalously, infant mortality rates in Northern Ireland are much higher than they are in the south – 4.8 deaths per 1,000 births compared to 2.8 in the south.
Ireland’s economy is predicted to grow by more than 4% this year, while the UK will be lucky to manage a quarter of that.
This is underpinned by sound public finances, with Ireland’s gross public debt at around 43%, while the UK’s is 101%. Ireland also has the second highest budget surplus in the EU.
The south has a corporation tax rate of 12.5%, half the UK rate of 25%.
I could go on, but you get the picture.
The gap across all these indices is stark and what quickly emerges is a tale of two Irelands. Yes, Dublin will be waiting anxiously to see what President Trump does with tariffs, but Irish ministers have ‘good problems’ to contend with. How to correct social policy imbalances, like a shortage of housing. Ireland will weather the medium-term turbulence in the US because its economic fundamentals are sound.
They consist of strong public finances, full employment, export-led growth, highlyskilled workers and Single Market access. In contrast the North has a few individual success stories, but the fundamentals are just not there to build economic self-reliance, with Westminster forced to pick up the tab so it can keep the lights on – in perpetuity.
We are nearly three decades on from the Good Friday Agreement and Northern Ireland is no nearer ‘washing its own face’ financially than it was back then. The place just doesn’t work, economically speaking, and never will do. It lacks scale, connectivity, investment and leadership.
In terms of its economic performance, life experiences and prospects, southern Ireland is steaming ahead and while the politics of Irish unity might be a tad problematic, the economic benefits of being part of this much more successful state are blindingly obvious.