Now that we are in December we are officially in the Christmas season. It is also this year, the start of coalition negotiations for the next Government of Ireland. To paraphrase Mariah Carey, all I want for Christmas is a pro-unity government. The recent general election is the first one where all of the mainstream parties set out their views on Irish unity with some detailed plans being included in manifestos. This should not be a surprise as all mainstream parties in Ireland are in favour of a United Ireland. What is intriguing though, is that they felt compelled to provide more detail on their plans to prepare for unity.
There are some within Unionism who see Sinn Féin’s performance in this election as a disaster for the unity project. After a tough twelve months Sinn Féin came second with a record number of 39 TDs. This provides a solid foundation for the future, if they can get their policies right and appeal to sufficient numbers of voters in the next election. But Irish unity cannot and does not rely on one political party. It must be something which is delivered by all political parties working together. Unionism has also pointed out that Irish unity did not feature highly in the list of key issues at this time for voters. The fact is that a desire for reunification is embedded in the Irish body politic. This is not some temporary aspiration, it is a fundamental viewpoint which is present in all of the main political parties of the State.
Fianna Fáil – The Republican Party, to give them their full name, stated in their manifesto that they intend to increase funding for the Shared Island Fund by another one billion euro, doubling the current amount. The document also reiterated “The Unity of all the Irish people within a shared state is and shall remain a founding value and objective of the Fianna Fáil party.”
Fine Gael, the United Ireland Party as it is formally called, set out in their manifesto that “Our vision for Ireland embraces all identities, religions, and minorities. Fine Gael is committed to unification as our objective.”
The Labour Party said in their manifesto that “Our Mission is to remain steadfast in support of the Good Friday Agreement, seek its full implementation to embed peace, recognise that the institutions must evolve and put in place a framework for the Irish government to plan for the potential of a future united Ireland.”
The Social Democrats manifesto says that “A United Ireland, achieved by consent has the real potential to benefit the people of the entire island economically, politically and culturally. We will therefore work towards achieving this in a spirit of mutual respect of and by the two parts of the island and based on a foundation of social democratic principles.”
Aontú stated in their manifesto that “Provision for a referendum on Irish unity should begin immediately and Ministers should work alongside counterparts in London to agree to a referendum by 2030.”
While negotiations to form the next Government of Ireland may continue beyond Christmas, we already know that it will be a coalition of two or more parties which are committed to the reunification of Ireland. This new government must start planning and preparing now for a border poll which is likely to take place in the next decade. It is by putting these preparations in place, that we can address the concerns of our Unionist brothers and sisters, as well as others across the island who are unsure of the benefits which will arise from Irish unity. We need to emphasise that it is not a question of focusing on Irish unity or bread and butter issues such as jobs, housing, health and education. There needs to be a focus on explaining that Irish unity will better enable delivery on all of these things, for everyone across the island. Removing unnecessary duplication in how we deliver healthcare, education, energy, attract FDI (foreign direct investment) will benefit everyone. Having an integrated approach across the island to these and other issues will be more efficient and effective. It is also an imperative as we seek to address the climate crisis. This can be achieved while still respecting the tradition and culture of Unionism and all other cultures across our increasingly diverse island. This diversity must be seen as a strength rather than a threat. We need to show that we can provide sufficient housing, healthcare, education and jobs for our growing population. People want to come to Ireland because they see opportunity here and we do not have the same hostile environment which has been stoked in Britain through Brexit.
Through planning we can show that a New Ireland will be one where diversity is seen as a strength, there is respect for all, regardless of background. The preparations will also show that we can deliver our public services and infrastructure better on an all-Ireland basis and we can insulate ourselves more fully from the ongoing chaos of Brexit.
As Kevin Meagher said in his excellent recent article on this website, 2029 is a key date, as we are likely to see elections to both Westminster and the Dáil then. The pressure for reunification will come from Britain as well as from Ireland. In a recent opinion poll both the Conservatives and Reform are ahead of the Labour party which is currently leading the British government. These two parties are firmly committed to Brexit and will not put the interests of Ireland first. In Scotland the SNP holds a narrow lead in opinion polls, while there is solid support for Scottish independence. In Wales in a recent opinion poll Plaid Cymru which wants to see Welsh Independence leads, as we look forward to the next Welsh Parliament election. Britain has been damaged by Brexit and its aftershocks. This is likely to be exacerbated further by these increasing political pressures pulling the direction of the country in different directions. This will have an impact on political decisions made on the island of Ireland.
I expected that Keir Starmer would seek a reset in Britain’s relations with Europe in general and Ireland in particular. However I did not expect that he would be seeking a reset of his own government less than six months after taking office. It shouldn’t be like this. Starmer is a serious person struggling to lead an unruly country. He has a substantial majority, the Conservatives and the British political class generally are exhausted after multiple contusions and crises. Some of these such as COVID-19 and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East unrest are issues which would challenge any government. But all of these are made worse by the self-imposed catastrophe which is Brexit. This leads to a constant unspooling of chaos, economic and political friction, both within Britain and how the country interacts with its European neighbours. Donald Trump has made it abundantly clear that he expects Britain to choose between the USA and the EU. Spoiler alert – he won’t be happy if the answer is not America.
People may say that these high level political contortions and talk of resets are unimportant to the ordinary citizen who is more concerned with their own job prospects, whether they can get treatment at their GP surgery or hospital, if their kids will be able to get accommodation that doesn’t cost the earth and whether we can do anything to address the climate crisis which is buffeting us every day. But the point is that while these may be high-level topics, the repercussions of Brexit and its ongoing aftershocks, affects all of us who live within the U.K. No British government can solve these challenges without first dealing with Brexit. Until Brexit is reversed, there will always be chaos, instability and friction in all of its unpleasant forms.
Some Unionist commentators have set out their thoughts on how this was a disastrous election for Sinn Fein and therefore for the unity project. It is true that Sinn Féin were riding high in the Southern opinion polls a couple of years ago. They will surely learn from their mistakes. By the time of the next Irish General Election they will have an economic record to run on from Conor Murphy’s time as Economy Minister in the NI Executive. We recently had the first joint Invest NI and IDA Ireland investment trip to Singapore. This is a significant achievement. Back in 2016 I tried to organise an all-Ireland investment trip to New York City for real estate professionals but I was unable to get the two economic development agencies to work together. It is practical steps like this, increasing the branding of the Wild Atlantic Way, the Ancient East to the North and focusing on developing the right skills to attract jobs across the entire region rather than just Belfast which will make a practical difference.
There is an element of revision within Unionism that actually the July Westminster election was a success because their percentage share of the vote increased slightly. It is still less than 50% in a region which was created specifically to have a permanent unionist and Protestant majority. It now has neither. Unionism holds eight out of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats at Westminster. They are represented by three parties and one independent. They hold a minority of seats at Westminster, the Northern Ireland Assembly and in Local Councils across Northern Ireland. While people talk about fragmentation in British and Irish politics, this is most pronounced in Unionism in the North.
Of the eight seats held by Unionism, three of them were won on small margins. In fact the collective margin of victory was only 4161 votes for the three formerly solid Unionist seats of East Derry, East Antrim and East Belfast. It seems likely that those three seats could be lost by Unionism in the next election, which has to be held by 2029.
The Irish electorate decided, unlike many countries across the world, to vote in significant numbers for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as government parties, while the Greens bore the brunt of voter frustration. The STV (Single Transferable Vote) system provides a more accurate reflection of how the electorate voted, than FPTP (First Past The Post). It also encourages parties to co-operate together as coalitions are often required to form a stable government. Irish politics is much more stable than British politics currently. Just as all the parties in the Dáil came together in the national interest to deal with Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic, now they must do so again as we enter this pre-unity phase. It is in everyone’s interests across the island to plan and prepare now for the referendums which will happen in the period ahead. By doing this, we can have an informed debate about what unity means and ensure that everyone, Unionist, Nationalist and other, has a clear idea of what they are voting for when the border poll is called. In that way everyone will win. I am confident that when people vote on the question of uniting Ireland with a full set of facts, they will vote in favour of a New Ireland.
Now that we are in December we are officially in the Christmas season. It is also this year, the start of coalition negotiations for the next Government of Ireland. To paraphrase Mariah Carey, all I want for Christmas is a pro-unity government. The recent general election is the first one where all of the mainstream parties set out their views on Irish unity with some detailed plans being included in manifestos. This should not be a surprise as all mainstream parties in Ireland are in favour of a United Ireland. What is intriguing though, is that they felt compelled to provide more detail on their plans to prepare for unity.
There are some within Unionism who see Sinn Féin’s performance in this election as a disaster for the unity project. After a tough twelve months Sinn Féin came second with a record number of 39 TDs. This provides a solid foundation for the future, if they can get their policies right and appeal to sufficient numbers of voters in the next election. But Irish unity cannot and does not rely on one political party. It must be something which is delivered by all political parties working together. Unionism has also pointed out that Irish unity did not feature highly in the list of key issues at this time for voters. The fact is that a desire for reunification is embedded in the Irish body politic. This is not some temporary aspiration, it is a fundamental viewpoint which is present in all of the main political parties of the State.
Fianna Fáil – The Republican Party, to give them their full name, stated in their manifesto that they intend to increase funding for the Shared Island Fund by another one billion euro, doubling the current amount. The document also reiterated “The Unity of all the Irish people within a shared state is and shall remain a founding value and objective of the Fianna Fáil party.”
Fine Gael, the United Ireland Party as it is formally called, set out in their manifesto that “Our vision for Ireland embraces all identities, religions, and minorities. Fine Gael is committed to unification as our objective.”
The Labour Party said in their manifesto that “Our Mission is to remain steadfast in support of the Good Friday Agreement, seek its full implementation to embed peace, recognise that the institutions must evolve and put in place a framework for the Irish government to plan for the potential of a future united Ireland.”
The Social Democrats manifesto says that “A United Ireland, achieved by consent has the real potential to benefit the people of the entire island economically, politically and culturally. We will therefore work towards achieving this in a spirit of mutual respect of and by the two parts of the island and based on a foundation of social democratic principles.”
Aontú stated in their manifesto that “Provision for a referendum on Irish unity should begin immediately and Ministers should work alongside counterparts in London to agree to a referendum by 2030.”
While negotiations to form the next Government of Ireland may continue beyond Christmas, we already know that it will be a coalition of two or more parties which are committed to the reunification of Ireland. This new government must start planning and preparing now for a border poll which is likely to take place in the next decade. It is by putting these preparations in place, that we can address the concerns of our Unionist brothers and sisters, as well as others across the island who are unsure of the benefits which will arise from Irish unity. We need to emphasise that it is not a question of focusing on Irish unity or bread and butter issues such as jobs, housing, health and education. There needs to be a focus on explaining that Irish unity will better enable delivery on all of these things, for everyone across the island. Removing unnecessary duplication in how we deliver healthcare, education, energy, attract FDI (foreign direct investment) will benefit everyone. Having an integrated approach across the island to these and other issues will be more efficient and effective. It is also an imperative as we seek to address the climate crisis. This can be achieved while still respecting the tradition and culture of Unionism and all other cultures across our increasingly diverse island. This diversity must be seen as a strength rather than a threat. We need to show that we can provide sufficient housing, healthcare, education and jobs for our growing population. People want to come to Ireland because they see opportunity here and we do not have the same hostile environment which has been stoked in Britain through Brexit.
Through planning we can show that a New Ireland will be one where diversity is seen as a strength, there is respect for all, regardless of background. The preparations will also show that we can deliver our public services and infrastructure better on an all-Ireland basis and we can insulate ourselves more fully from the ongoing chaos of Brexit.
As Kevin Meagher said in his excellent recent article on this website, 2029 is a key date, as we are likely to see elections to both Westminster and the Dáil then. The pressure for reunification will come from Britain as well as from Ireland. In a recent opinion poll both the Conservatives and Reform are ahead of the Labour party which is currently leading the British government. These two parties are firmly committed to Brexit and will not put the interests of Ireland first. In Scotland the SNP holds a narrow lead in opinion polls, while there is solid support for Scottish independence. In Wales in a recent opinion poll Plaid Cymru which wants to see Welsh Independence leads, as we look forward to the next Welsh Parliament election. Britain has been damaged by Brexit and its aftershocks. This is likely to be exacerbated further by these increasing political pressures pulling the direction of the country in different directions. This will have an impact on political decisions made on the island of Ireland.
I expected that Keir Starmer would seek a reset in Britain’s relations with Europe in general and Ireland in particular. However I did not expect that he would be seeking a reset of his own government less than six months after taking office. It shouldn’t be like this. Starmer is a serious person struggling to lead an unruly country. He has a substantial majority, the Conservatives and the British political class generally are exhausted after multiple contusions and crises. Some of these such as COVID-19 and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East unrest are issues which would challenge any government. But all of these are made worse by the self-imposed catastrophe which is Brexit. This leads to a constant unspooling of chaos, economic and political friction, both within Britain and how the country interacts with its European neighbours. Donald Trump has made it abundantly clear that he expects Britain to choose between the USA and the EU. Spoiler alert – he won’t be happy if the answer is not America.
People may say that these high level political contortions and talk of resets are unimportant to the ordinary citizen who is more concerned with their own job prospects, whether they can get treatment at their GP surgery or hospital, if their kids will be able to get accommodation that doesn’t cost the earth and whether we can do anything to address the climate crisis which is buffeting us every day. But the point is that while these may be high-level topics, the repercussions of Brexit and its ongoing aftershocks, affects all of us who live within the U.K. No British government can solve these challenges without first dealing with Brexit. Until Brexit is reversed, there will always be chaos, instability and friction in all of its unpleasant forms.
Some Unionist commentators have set out their thoughts on how this was a disastrous election for Sinn Fein and therefore for the unity project. It is true that Sinn Féin were riding high in the Southern opinion polls a couple of years ago. They will surely learn from their mistakes. By the time of the next Irish General Election they will have an economic record to run on from Conor Murphy’s time as Economy Minister in the NI Executive. We recently had the first joint Invest NI and IDA Ireland investment trip to Singapore. This is a significant achievement. Back in 2016 I tried to organise an all-Ireland investment trip to New York City for real estate professionals but I was unable to get the two economic development agencies to work together. It is practical steps like this, increasing the branding of the Wild Atlantic Way, the Ancient East to the North and focusing on developing the right skills to attract jobs across the entire region rather than just Belfast which will make a practical difference.
There is an element of revision within Unionism that actually the July Westminster election was a success because their percentage share of the vote increased slightly. It is still less than 50% in a region which was created specifically to have a permanent unionist and Protestant majority. It now has neither. Unionism holds eight out of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats at Westminster. They are represented by three parties and one independent. They hold a minority of seats at Westminster, the Northern Ireland Assembly and in Local Councils across Northern Ireland. While people talk about fragmentation in British and Irish politics, this is most pronounced in Unionism in the North.
Of the eight seats held by Unionism, three of them were won on small margins. In fact the collective margin of victory was only 4161 votes for the three formerly solid Unionist seats of East Derry, East Antrim and East Belfast. It seems likely that those three seats could be lost by Unionism in the next election, which has to be held by 2029.
The Irish electorate decided, unlike many countries across the world, to vote in significant numbers for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as government parties, while the Greens bore the brunt of voter frustration. The STV (Single Transferable Vote) system provides a more accurate reflection of how the electorate voted, than FPTP (First Past The Post). It also encourages parties to co-operate together as coalitions are often required to form a stable government. Irish politics is much more stable than British politics currently. Just as all the parties in the Dáil came together in the national interest to deal with Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic, now they must do so again as we enter this pre-unity phase. It is in everyone’s interests across the island to plan and prepare now for the referendums which will happen in the period ahead. By doing this, we can have an informed debate about what unity means and ensure that everyone, Unionist, Nationalist and other, has a clear idea of what they are voting for when the border poll is called. In that way everyone will win. I am confident that when people vote on the question of uniting Ireland with a full set of facts, they will vote in favour of a New Ireland.