By Ben Collins
Andy Burnham is proud of his Irish ancestry. As the likely next British Prime Minister, this is an important factor, in what he may seek to do once he takes up office. He has previously talked about members of his family leaving Drogheda in the late 19th century and moving to Liverpool. While it can be hoped that he can arrest the decline of the Labour party and stop the march of a far right Reform UK towards government, there is also an opportunity for him to create a lasting legacy on this island.
Simon Harris, Tánaiste and leader of Fine Gael has announced that his party will publish a blueprint for Irish Unity at its Ard Fheis in November. At that point he will be a year away from becoming Taoiseach again. Both Harris and Burnham will be mindful of the next general elections in Ireland and Britain taking place by 2029 at the latest. Most, if not all, politicians think of their legacy. They want to leave their mark in a positive way on their country. In March this year Andy Burnham visited Belfast and toured round St Geroge’s Market in Belfast with some SDLP representatives. He also gave a speech at the Alliance party conference where he talked about how Westminster hadn’t worked for Northern Ireland. It is hard to argue with this, for example, when you consider that no Unionist MP from Northern Ireland has been a member of the British Cabinet since the Second World War. That is eighty years outside the corridors of power. He stated that “nothing short of a complete rewiring of the UK’s political system is needed.” He has also emphasised his desire for close relations between Britian and Ireland.
As someone who supports the Good Friday Agreement, he will know that there is a provision for a border poll within it. We are now nearly thirty years on from the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, an internationally recognised agreement, which was endorsed by referendums North and South in Ireland. In those years we have had a referendum on Scottish independence and on leaving the EU, but not as yet one on uniting Ireland.
A lot can happen between now and the next general elections in Ireland and Britain. Simon Harris will be aware that Fine Gael has been in government continuously since 2011 and by the time of the next election, that will be nearly two full decades in power. There comes a point in any democracy when a party needs to go into opposition to renew itself. Doing so after the next general election will also enable Fine Gael to stake out territory on the centre right and minimise the space afforded to the far right. Andy Burnham will know that under the current first past the post system at Westminster, which he wants to change, Reform UK could potentially form a majority government on around 30% of the vote, due to the fragmented nature of the electorate. Alternatively they could form a coalition with Conservative and Restore Britain MPs. So both of them have talked about their desire for close relations between Ireland and Britain. They also know that they may only have these few short years in government, to make their mark.
By the time of the next general elections Fine Gael will have published its blueprint for Irish Unity. The legislation which Sinn Féin introduced this month into the Dáil which calls for the Irish Government to prepare for a United Ireland, is also likely to have been passed. In politics it is not just an action which has an impact on wider political discourse. It is the reaction to the initial action. Fine Gael has committed to consulting widely on its blueprint for Irish Unity and the legislation introduced by Sinn Féin which will require the Irish Government to plan for a United Ireland and hold a series of citizens’ assemblies will all add to the growing momentum for reunification of Ireland. The consultative processes for these two initiatives will create a platform where civic groups, business groups, trade unions, community groups and more widely members of the public will all engage in this constitutional conversation. The fact that for the first time ever in the history of the state, a party within the Irish Government, is specifically committing to preparing for Irish Unity, is seismic in itself. Simon Harris expressly referenced how he saw preparing for Irish Unity as directly building on the legacy of former Fine Gael Taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald who signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
When Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach in November 2027, his blueprint for Irish Unity will have been published for a year. The legislation requiring the Irish Government to prepare for a United Ireland, may also have been passed by then. His announcement about publishing a blueprint may have taken some of his own party by surprise and the wider establishment. Bold political leadership can create political momentum and from a Fine Gael viewpoint, it is a way to lead the agenda. Fianna Fáil now has to decide how to respond. The crucial thing is framing Irish unity not as something separate from key issues of housing, healthcare, defence and the economy. Rather, the reunification of Ireland will enable delivery in a more efficient and effective way on each of these priorities. Removing the duplication of services and government structures across Ireland will transform this island for the better and benefit citizens in each of our four provinces. That is a legacy worth securing for the history books and for the people.
Andy Burnham is an advocate of EU membership. While he stated that rejoining the EU was not a priority during the Makerfield by-election, he will know that Northern Ireland can immediately rejoin the EU by voting for a United Ireland in a border poll. Unionist politicians in Northern Ireland will have the potential to influence politics in all-Ireland parliament, in a way which is simply never going to be possible while Northern Ireland remains part of the UK. There are only eight Unionist MPs representing Northern Ireland constituencies out of a total of 650 MPs. Even when the DUP was part of a confidence and supply agreement with the Conservative minority government between 2017-19, the decision to effectively place a border down the Irish Sea was imposed, despite their strong objections.
There are no votes for Labour in Northern Ireland and while Andy Burnham has previously expressed support for standing Labour candidates in Northern Ireland, doing so is unlikely to change the dynamics towards reunification. Three of the DUP MPs currently have a combined majority of just over 4000 votes. In each of those constituencies the second placed candidate is a non-unionist. So while there will be boundary changes by the time of the next Westminster election, there will also be votes for 16 year olds. The younger population in Northern Ireland is more likely to vote for Nationalist and other non-Unionist candidates than the older electorate. It is conceivable that after the next Westminster election, there could be only five Unionist MPs, in a region which was artificially created to a have a permanent Unionist majority.
Andy Burnham believes in devolving power down to the local level. What better way to do this for Northern Ireland, than to send power and decisions back across the Irish Sea to Dublin. He will only do this, if he believes that there is a majority for Irish Unity in Northern Ireland. The Fine Gael and Sinn Féin initiatives mentioned above can help to create this momentum. Planning for Irish Unity by Irish political parties and the Irish Government validates those of us who have been campaigning for reunification. We may also have a new leader of Fianna Fáil by the time of the next general election. This could be someone who is ready to reclaim their party’s status as “the Republican Party”, in a way which Micheál Martin appears unwilling to do. The Shared Island Initiative has been an important one, but we need to now progress beyond this and move towards reunification to transform our island from one which has two states into a fully integrated country. Unionists can, if they choose to do so, play a full part in the Government of Ireland after we have voted for reunification. We need an integrated governance structure where we can secure Ireland’s full potential through one health service, one economy, one education system, one approach to addressing climate change and dealing with future pandemics.
Andy Burnham, I believe, is someone who understands the need to make politics work, so that local communities can flourish and the far right can be defeated. The only way to deliver peace and prosperity for everyone who lives across Ireland, is through Irish Unity. The British border in Ireland has been the source of much division for more than one hundred years. It also acts as a barrier to so many opportunities and divides our people. Removing this border will an act of liberation. Andy Burnham may not publicly call for Irish Unity at this stage, but I think he understands that enabling reunification to happen will be welcomed in Dublin, Brussels, other capitals across Europe and in Washington DC. In a time of geopolitical turbulence Irish Unity will be seen as a beacon of hope and welcomed around the world. Being the British Prime Minister who facilitated this process, will rightly earn Andy Burnham his place in history and goodwill from countries around the globe.
Ben Collins is the author of The Irish Unity Dividend and Irish Unity: Time to Prepare both published by Luath Press.
By Ben Collins
Andy Burnham is proud of his Irish ancestry. As the likely next British Prime Minister, this is an important factor, in what he may seek to do once he takes up office. He has previously talked about members of his family leaving Drogheda in the late 19th century and moving to Liverpool. While it can be hoped that he can arrest the decline of the Labour party and stop the march of a far right Reform UK towards government, there is also an opportunity for him to create a lasting legacy on this island.
Simon Harris, Tánaiste and leader of Fine Gael has announced that his party will publish a blueprint for Irish Unity at its Ard Fheis in November. At that point he will be a year away from becoming Taoiseach again. Both Harris and Burnham will be mindful of the next general elections in Ireland and Britain taking place by 2029 at the latest. Most, if not all, politicians think of their legacy. They want to leave their mark in a positive way on their country. In March this year Andy Burnham visited Belfast and toured round St Geroge’s Market in Belfast with some SDLP representatives. He also gave a speech at the Alliance party conference where he talked about how Westminster hadn’t worked for Northern Ireland. It is hard to argue with this, for example, when you consider that no Unionist MP from Northern Ireland has been a member of the British Cabinet since the Second World War. That is eighty years outside the corridors of power. He stated that “nothing short of a complete rewiring of the UK’s political system is needed.” He has also emphasised his desire for close relations between Britian and Ireland.
As someone who supports the Good Friday Agreement, he will know that there is a provision for a border poll within it. We are now nearly thirty years on from the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, an internationally recognised agreement, which was endorsed by referendums North and South in Ireland. In those years we have had a referendum on Scottish independence and on leaving the EU, but not as yet one on uniting Ireland.
A lot can happen between now and the next general elections in Ireland and Britain. Simon Harris will be aware that Fine Gael has been in government continuously since 2011 and by the time of the next election, that will be nearly two full decades in power. There comes a point in any democracy when a party needs to go into opposition to renew itself. Doing so after the next general election will also enable Fine Gael to stake out territory on the centre right and minimise the space afforded to the far right. Andy Burnham will know that under the current first past the post system at Westminster, which he wants to change, Reform UK could potentially form a majority government on around 30% of the vote, due to the fragmented nature of the electorate. Alternatively they could form a coalition with Conservative and Restore Britain MPs. So both of them have talked about their desire for close relations between Ireland and Britain. They also know that they may only have these few short years in government, to make their mark.
By the time of the next general elections Fine Gael will have published its blueprint for Irish Unity. The legislation which Sinn Féin introduced this month into the Dáil which calls for the Irish Government to prepare for a United Ireland, is also likely to have been passed. In politics it is not just an action which has an impact on wider political discourse. It is the reaction to the initial action. Fine Gael has committed to consulting widely on its blueprint for Irish Unity and the legislation introduced by Sinn Féin which will require the Irish Government to plan for a United Ireland and hold a series of citizens’ assemblies will all add to the growing momentum for reunification of Ireland. The consultative processes for these two initiatives will create a platform where civic groups, business groups, trade unions, community groups and more widely members of the public will all engage in this constitutional conversation. The fact that for the first time ever in the history of the state, a party within the Irish Government, is specifically committing to preparing for Irish Unity, is seismic in itself. Simon Harris expressly referenced how he saw preparing for Irish Unity as directly building on the legacy of former Fine Gael Taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald who signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
When Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach in November 2027, his blueprint for Irish Unity will have been published for a year. The legislation requiring the Irish Government to prepare for a United Ireland, may also have been passed by then. His announcement about publishing a blueprint may have taken some of his own party by surprise and the wider establishment. Bold political leadership can create political momentum and from a Fine Gael viewpoint, it is a way to lead the agenda. Fianna Fáil now has to decide how to respond. The crucial thing is framing Irish unity not as something separate from key issues of housing, healthcare, defence and the economy. Rather, the reunification of Ireland will enable delivery in a more efficient and effective way on each of these priorities. Removing the duplication of services and government structures across Ireland will transform this island for the better and benefit citizens in each of our four provinces. That is a legacy worth securing for the history books and for the people.
Andy Burnham is an advocate of EU membership. While he stated that rejoining the EU was not a priority during the Makerfield by-election, he will know that Northern Ireland can immediately rejoin the EU by voting for a United Ireland in a border poll. Unionist politicians in Northern Ireland will have the potential to influence politics in all-Ireland parliament, in a way which is simply never going to be possible while Northern Ireland remains part of the UK. There are only eight Unionist MPs representing Northern Ireland constituencies out of a total of 650 MPs. Even when the DUP was part of a confidence and supply agreement with the Conservative minority government between 2017-19, the decision to effectively place a border down the Irish Sea was imposed, despite their strong objections.
There are no votes for Labour in Northern Ireland and while Andy Burnham has previously expressed support for standing Labour candidates in Northern Ireland, doing so is unlikely to change the dynamics towards reunification. Three of the DUP MPs currently have a combined majority of just over 4000 votes. In each of those constituencies the second placed candidate is a non-unionist. So while there will be boundary changes by the time of the next Westminster election, there will also be votes for 16 year olds. The younger population in Northern Ireland is more likely to vote for Nationalist and other non-Unionist candidates than the older electorate. It is conceivable that after the next Westminster election, there could be only five Unionist MPs, in a region which was artificially created to a have a permanent Unionist majority.
Andy Burnham believes in devolving power down to the local level. What better way to do this for Northern Ireland, than to send power and decisions back across the Irish Sea to Dublin. He will only do this, if he believes that there is a majority for Irish Unity in Northern Ireland. The Fine Gael and Sinn Féin initiatives mentioned above can help to create this momentum. Planning for Irish Unity by Irish political parties and the Irish Government validates those of us who have been campaigning for reunification. We may also have a new leader of Fianna Fáil by the time of the next general election. This could be someone who is ready to reclaim their party’s status as “the Republican Party”, in a way which Micheál Martin appears unwilling to do. The Shared Island Initiative has been an important one, but we need to now progress beyond this and move towards reunification to transform our island from one which has two states into a fully integrated country. Unionists can, if they choose to do so, play a full part in the Government of Ireland after we have voted for reunification. We need an integrated governance structure where we can secure Ireland’s full potential through one health service, one economy, one education system, one approach to addressing climate change and dealing with future pandemics.
Andy Burnham, I believe, is someone who understands the need to make politics work, so that local communities can flourish and the far right can be defeated. The only way to deliver peace and prosperity for everyone who lives across Ireland, is through Irish Unity. The British border in Ireland has been the source of much division for more than one hundred years. It also acts as a barrier to so many opportunities and divides our people. Removing this border will an act of liberation. Andy Burnham may not publicly call for Irish Unity at this stage, but I think he understands that enabling reunification to happen will be welcomed in Dublin, Brussels, other capitals across Europe and in Washington DC. In a time of geopolitical turbulence Irish Unity will be seen as a beacon of hope and welcomed around the world. Being the British Prime Minister who facilitated this process, will rightly earn Andy Burnham his place in history and goodwill from countries around the globe.
Ben Collins is the author of The Irish Unity Dividend and Irish Unity: Time to Prepare both published by Luath Press.