Introduction
I have two visual metaphors for Irish unity.
The first, is a piece of driftwood caught in the surf.
Its tantalisingly close, just out of reach. It frustrates as it seems to get closer before pulling back again.
But it will land on the shore. It’s inevitable, given the elemental forces pushing it along.
An incoming tide only goes in one direction.
The second, is a record producer’s mixing desk.
It’s all dials and switches. Lots of permutations. Small changes – a nudge here, or a twist there – can have a dramatic effect.
So, it’s going to happen, but the precise timescale and pathway are reliant on a range of variables that are wont to change and alter the calculation.
They include the state of play in the North – election results, demographics and polling.
They also include what’s going on the in the South – election results again, but also the attitude of the Irish state towards unity and Irish public opinion.
Then there is also the posture taken by the British government and public opinion on this side of the Irish Sea.
So how do we chart a path to a border poll?
Let me start by saying it is foolish in the extreme to speculatetoo far into the future, so let me confine my remarks to what is plausible.
We have six elections between 2026 and 2030. Each has some bearing on the timing of a border poll.
7th May next year sees elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, as well as a raft of English local elections.
These are important because of how they set the scene and help frame the possibility of constitutional change.
The SNP has had a time of it recently but is again leading in the polls and looks set to win the most seats, along with other pro-independence parties.
If they again have a majority in the parliament, demands for a second independence referendum will only grow.
Our Welsh cousins have never been as keen on independence, but a recent poll has Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, leading the race.
A good result for independence campaigners will create a vibe– a narrative – that the shape of the British state is changing. In so doing it will help normalise that eventuality.
Now, scroll forward to the 6 May 2027 and elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly.
On current form, it seems likely that Sinn Fein will remain in top spot, but the really interesting thing to look for is the combined share of the vote between pro-United Ireland parties and pro-UK parties.
Last time the gap was less than 1%.
A year later we have all-out local elections in Northern Ireland.Same thing again, only last time, in 2023, those blocs were reversed and for the first time ever, the popular vote was won by pro-United Ireland candidates.
If that happens in the assembly and local elections this time, demands for a border poll will become impossible to ignore.
Then in 2029, we’re likely to have the next British General Election. Later that year, or in early 2030, we have the next Irish election.
The key variable in the Good Friday Agreement dictating the calling of a border poll – that it is ‘likely’ voters would support change, will have been met in two sets of real elections.
It will force the can-kickers of British politics to engage with the likelihood that there will need to be a border poll in the next parliament.
After all, if they try and ignore it, the issue will simply return in the 2032-2033 cycle of elections.
And with Scotland in play, can British ministers ignore two major constitutional fires burning on the moorland?
So, a border poll in the 2029-2034 window is highly realistic.
A British government will act once two conditions have been met.
The first is that there is demonstrable support in the North. On every electoral metric that is happening.
The second is that the Southern buyer is ‘willing to collect.’
However, let me reemphasise my point: Politics is unpredictable. Variables vary. The calculation recalibrates.
Without Sinn Fein and the SDLP cooperating with each other – and with others – in 2027 and 2028 to maximise the United Irelander vote, a border poll will not happen.
Without a greening of the Irish government (with Sinn Fein featuring as either the senior or junior partner in the next Irish government) a border poll will not happen.
We are talking about the how, but without a compelling prospectus about the why a united Ireland should happen, then a border poll will not happen.
There is still a lot to do.
But two closing thoughts.
For United Irelanders, party labels are now irrelevant. As Leo Varadkar recently pointed out, this is now the ‘great cause’ of this generation.
And finally, a reminder: We are at the cusp of a great historical inflection point. The opportunity is seized, or it is not.
Introduction
I have two visual metaphors for Irish unity.
The first, is a piece of driftwood caught in the surf.
Its tantalisingly close, just out of reach. It frustrates as it seems to get closer before pulling back again.
But it will land on the shore. It’s inevitable, given the elemental forces pushing it along.
An incoming tide only goes in one direction.
The second, is a record producer’s mixing desk.
It’s all dials and switches. Lots of permutations. Small changes – a nudge here, or a twist there – can have a dramatic effect.
So, it’s going to happen, but the precise timescale and pathway are reliant on a range of variables that are wont to change and alter the calculation.
They include the state of play in the North – election results, demographics and polling.
They also include what’s going on the in the South – election results again, but also the attitude of the Irish state towards unity and Irish public opinion.
Then there is also the posture taken by the British government and public opinion on this side of the Irish Sea.
So how do we chart a path to a border poll?
Let me start by saying it is foolish in the extreme to speculatetoo far into the future, so let me confine my remarks to what is plausible.
We have six elections between 2026 and 2030. Each has some bearing on the timing of a border poll.
7th May next year sees elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, as well as a raft of English local elections.
These are important because of how they set the scene and help frame the possibility of constitutional change.
The SNP has had a time of it recently but is again leading in the polls and looks set to win the most seats, along with other pro-independence parties.
If they again have a majority in the parliament, demands for a second independence referendum will only grow.
Our Welsh cousins have never been as keen on independence, but a recent poll has Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, leading the race.
A good result for independence campaigners will create a vibe– a narrative – that the shape of the British state is changing. In so doing it will help normalise that eventuality.
Now, scroll forward to the 6 May 2027 and elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly.
On current form, it seems likely that Sinn Fein will remain in top spot, but the really interesting thing to look for is the combined share of the vote between pro-United Ireland parties and pro-UK parties.
Last time the gap was less than 1%.
A year later we have all-out local elections in Northern Ireland.Same thing again, only last time, in 2023, those blocs were reversed and for the first time ever, the popular vote was won by pro-United Ireland candidates.
If that happens in the assembly and local elections this time, demands for a border poll will become impossible to ignore.
Then in 2029, we’re likely to have the next British General Election. Later that year, or in early 2030, we have the next Irish election.
The key variable in the Good Friday Agreement dictating the calling of a border poll – that it is ‘likely’ voters would support change, will have been met in two sets of real elections.
It will force the can-kickers of British politics to engage with the likelihood that there will need to be a border poll in the next parliament.
After all, if they try and ignore it, the issue will simply return in the 2032-2033 cycle of elections.
And with Scotland in play, can British ministers ignore two major constitutional fires burning on the moorland?
So, a border poll in the 2029-2034 window is highly realistic.
A British government will act once two conditions have been met.
The first is that there is demonstrable support in the North. On every electoral metric that is happening.
The second is that the Southern buyer is ‘willing to collect.’
However, let me reemphasise my point: Politics is unpredictable. Variables vary. The calculation recalibrates.
Without Sinn Fein and the SDLP cooperating with each other – and with others – in 2027 and 2028 to maximise the United Irelander vote, a border poll will not happen.
Without a greening of the Irish government (with Sinn Fein featuring as either the senior or junior partner in the next Irish government) a border poll will not happen.
We are talking about the how, but without a compelling prospectus about the why a united Ireland should happen, then a border poll will not happen.
There is still a lot to do.
But two closing thoughts.
For United Irelanders, party labels are now irrelevant. As Leo Varadkar recently pointed out, this is now the ‘great cause’ of this generation.
And finally, a reminder: We are at the cusp of a great historical inflection point. The opportunity is seized, or it is not.