As a former press officer in the British Government’s Northern Ireland Office (NIO), I’m always interested in what the NIO has to say. The recent furore about Fleur Anderson MP Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, making the quite reasonable assumption that opinion polls will be used to decide when a border poll is held, is sadly not unexpected. The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland shall call a border poll “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.
First of all the agreement sets out circumstances when the Secretary of State shall call a border poll. That does not preclude the Secretary of State from calling a referendum at another time. For example, imagine it’s 2029 and a new Reform/Conservative coalition has just won the Westminster election. This new government could decide to implement a cost-cutting exercise just like DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), the one currently led in the USA by Elon Musk. It is not hard to imagine that a right wing pro-Brexit government would view the block grant (currently in excess of £18 Billion) paid annually to Northern Ireland, as unnecessary expenditure. There are no seats and very few votes for either Reform or the Conservatives in Northern Ireland, so it is easy to believe they would prefer to spend the money elsewhere where it can make a positive electoral impact for their parties.
In those circumstances a Northern Ireland Secretary of State could call a border poll and advocate the reunification of Ireland. Factors external to Ireland such as this potential scenario are part of the reason why the Irish Government needs to start planning and preparing now, in advance of a border poll. We need to have a campaign which is informed by two detailed options; one for the maintenance of the union with Britain for Northern Ireland, or two, the reunification of Ireland.
But back to the present day, while the NIO backtracked on what Fleur Anderson said, it is intriguing how this was presented. An NIO spokesperson said on Tuesday 22 April: “The responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. This is clearly set out in the NI Act 1998, which gives effect to the Good Friday Agreement and the principle of consent. This has been – and remains – the only condition. The Secretary of State has been clear that there is no evidence that this condition has been met.”
I would argue that this quote merely sets out who technically can call the border poll. It does not specify any condition. Logic dictates that if the Secretary of State has been clear that the condition for a border poll has not been met, there must be criteria or metrics against which he has made this judgment. If so, what are these criteria or metrics? The Secretary of State needs to be transparent about how he has made this judgment. Is it because of opinion polls, electoral results, demographics, a combination of all of these, or something else? In a democratic society we deserve to know how this viewpoint is being reached.
In reality the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland reports to the Prime Minister, who is “first among equals” under the British constitution. No border poll is going to be called without the approval of the British Prime Minister. I would hope that the Irish Government would also be consulted in advance and agree to this taking place. This would allow for planning beforehand. However a previous British Government under Boris Johnson threatened to leave the EU with no deal, despite the obvious difficulties this would cause for the Irish government and the continued open border between North and South. A future British Government could decide to hold a snap border poll because they want to offload Northern Ireland and its associated cost, or because they see this as a way of destabilising Ireland by forcing a vote and potential reunification, before the Irish Government has a detailed plan in place.
We can hope that this two potential future scenarios do not happen. It is preferable that there is detailed planning beforehand and that the border poll is held because there has been a transparent recognition of specific criteria being met. For this to happen, we need to know in advance what the criteria are and how they will be considered to have been met.
Unionism is right perhaps to argue that opinion polls should not be used as the sole criteria by which a border poll is called. However if we look at the current circumstances, we cannot definitively state that the voters of Northern Ireland want to stay part of the UK. In successive elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, local councils across the region and the Westminster election, a clear trend has emerged. Unionism holds a minority of seats in local government, at the assembly and Northern Ireland Westminster constituencies, following these three elections. This is seismic. Northern Ireland as a region was created specifically by the British Government in 1921 to have a permanent Unionist and Protestant majority. It now has neither. The only way we can truly know what the voters of Northern Ireland want, is by holding a border poll. But this needs to be a carefully managed process. We want to avoid the chaos of Brexit where people did not have a clear idea what they were voting for.
As someone who comes from a strongly pro-Unionist and pro-British background, I understand that this is an unsettling time for unionists. All of us who lived through the conflict, experienced or saw terrible things. No part of our society was unaffected. The Good Friday Agreement is a success for many reasons. One of these is that all mainstream parties accept that any constitutional change will only happen following a democratic vote. Violence will not be the route to a United Ireland. It is apparent to everyone that change is happening. While we cannot guarantee where this will lead, we should prepare for potential constitutional change. As Peter Robinson, former DUP First Minister said back in 2018: “I don’t expect my own house to burn down but I still insure it because it could happen”. He mentioned the possibility of Northern Ireland voting to join with the rest of Ireland. Since then the dominance of Unionism in elections has ended and momentum towards a border poll has increased. This issue will not disappear but we can make the path towards referendums smoother. The Secretary of State should set out fair and reasonable criteria now, ideally agreed with the Irish Government. The British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference which met on Thursday 24th April for the first time since 2006, is the ideal place for formally agreeing the criteria for a border poll. Nobody who believes in democracy should have anything to fear through the setting of border poll criteria which are known to the voting public.
In advance of the border poll the Irish Government needs to prepare a plan for what unity will look like. I also want to hear from Unionism about why Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK. When the border poll criteria has been set and publicised, all of us can then look forward with certainty to the time when the opportunity to express our constitutional will arise. We can make an evidence-based choice based on the competing visions set out by the pro-Union and pro-Unity campaigns. Under these circumstances, the people of Ireland North and South will win because we will be making an informed decision about what is the best future for us and our children. Surely that is something we can all agree on?
Ben Collins is the author of Irish Unity: Time to Prepare. His new book The Irish Unity Dividend will be published on 30 September 2025 and is available to pre-order here: Irish Unity Dividend by Ben Collins | Waterstones
As a former press officer in the British Government’s Northern Ireland Office (NIO), I’m always interested in what the NIO has to say. The recent furore about Fleur Anderson MP Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, making the quite reasonable assumption that opinion polls will be used to decide when a border poll is held, is sadly not unexpected. The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland shall call a border poll “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.
First of all the agreement sets out circumstances when the Secretary of State shall call a border poll. That does not preclude the Secretary of State from calling a referendum at another time. For example, imagine it’s 2029 and a new Reform/Conservative coalition has just won the Westminster election. This new government could decide to implement a cost-cutting exercise just like DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), the one currently led in the USA by Elon Musk. It is not hard to imagine that a right wing pro-Brexit government would view the block grant (currently in excess of £18 Billion) paid annually to Northern Ireland, as unnecessary expenditure. There are no seats and very few votes for either Reform or the Conservatives in Northern Ireland, so it is easy to believe they would prefer to spend the money elsewhere where it can make a positive electoral impact for their parties.
In those circumstances a Northern Ireland Secretary of State could call a border poll and advocate the reunification of Ireland. Factors external to Ireland such as this potential scenario are part of the reason why the Irish Government needs to start planning and preparing now, in advance of a border poll. We need to have a campaign which is informed by two detailed options; one for the maintenance of the union with Britain for Northern Ireland, or two, the reunification of Ireland.
But back to the present day, while the NIO backtracked on what Fleur Anderson said, it is intriguing how this was presented. An NIO spokesperson said on Tuesday 22 April: “The responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. This is clearly set out in the NI Act 1998, which gives effect to the Good Friday Agreement and the principle of consent. This has been – and remains – the only condition. The Secretary of State has been clear that there is no evidence that this condition has been met.”
I would argue that this quote merely sets out who technically can call the border poll. It does not specify any condition. Logic dictates that if the Secretary of State has been clear that the condition for a border poll has not been met, there must be criteria or metrics against which he has made this judgment. If so, what are these criteria or metrics? The Secretary of State needs to be transparent about how he has made this judgment. Is it because of opinion polls, electoral results, demographics, a combination of all of these, or something else? In a democratic society we deserve to know how this viewpoint is being reached.
In reality the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland reports to the Prime Minister, who is “first among equals” under the British constitution. No border poll is going to be called without the approval of the British Prime Minister. I would hope that the Irish Government would also be consulted in advance and agree to this taking place. This would allow for planning beforehand. However a previous British Government under Boris Johnson threatened to leave the EU with no deal, despite the obvious difficulties this would cause for the Irish government and the continued open border between North and South. A future British Government could decide to hold a snap border poll because they want to offload Northern Ireland and its associated cost, or because they see this as a way of destabilising Ireland by forcing a vote and potential reunification, before the Irish Government has a detailed plan in place.
We can hope that this two potential future scenarios do not happen. It is preferable that there is detailed planning beforehand and that the border poll is held because there has been a transparent recognition of specific criteria being met. For this to happen, we need to know in advance what the criteria are and how they will be considered to have been met.
Unionism is right perhaps to argue that opinion polls should not be used as the sole criteria by which a border poll is called. However if we look at the current circumstances, we cannot definitively state that the voters of Northern Ireland want to stay part of the UK. In successive elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, local councils across the region and the Westminster election, a clear trend has emerged. Unionism holds a minority of seats in local government, at the assembly and Northern Ireland Westminster constituencies, following these three elections. This is seismic. Northern Ireland as a region was created specifically by the British Government in 1921 to have a permanent Unionist and Protestant majority. It now has neither. The only way we can truly know what the voters of Northern Ireland want, is by holding a border poll. But this needs to be a carefully managed process. We want to avoid the chaos of Brexit where people did not have a clear idea what they were voting for.
As someone who comes from a strongly pro-Unionist and pro-British background, I understand that this is an unsettling time for unionists. All of us who lived through the conflict, experienced or saw terrible things. No part of our society was unaffected. The Good Friday Agreement is a success for many reasons. One of these is that all mainstream parties accept that any constitutional change will only happen following a democratic vote. Violence will not be the route to a United Ireland. It is apparent to everyone that change is happening. While we cannot guarantee where this will lead, we should prepare for potential constitutional change. As Peter Robinson, former DUP First Minister said back in 2018: “I don’t expect my own house to burn down but I still insure it because it could happen”. He mentioned the possibility of Northern Ireland voting to join with the rest of Ireland. Since then the dominance of Unionism in elections has ended and momentum towards a border poll has increased. This issue will not disappear but we can make the path towards referendums smoother. The Secretary of State should set out fair and reasonable criteria now, ideally agreed with the Irish Government. The British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference which met on Thursday 24th April for the first time since 2006, is the ideal place for formally agreeing the criteria for a border poll. Nobody who believes in democracy should have anything to fear through the setting of border poll criteria which are known to the voting public.
In advance of the border poll the Irish Government needs to prepare a plan for what unity will look like. I also want to hear from Unionism about why Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK. When the border poll criteria has been set and publicised, all of us can then look forward with certainty to the time when the opportunity to express our constitutional will arise. We can make an evidence-based choice based on the competing visions set out by the pro-Union and pro-Unity campaigns. Under these circumstances, the people of Ireland North and South will win because we will be making an informed decision about what is the best future for us and our children. Surely that is something we can all agree on?
Ben Collins is the author of Irish Unity: Time to Prepare. His new book The Irish Unity Dividend will be published on 30 September 2025 and is available to pre-order here: Irish Unity Dividend by Ben Collins | Waterstones