Since 1932, each Irish Government has consisted of either Fine Gael and/or Fianna Fáil. Having a political duopoly isn’t unique to Ireland, but at this moment in time I’d argue it’s made our elections stale.
The UK and USA have duopolies too, but their recent elections have produced different Governments. The British were able to vote out Tories after more than a decade in power, and the Americans voted in Republicans over Democrats.
Yet, since 2020 the prospect of the Irish voting out both main parties doesn’t appear likely.
Fine Gael has been in every single Government since 2011. This is despite their vote share going from 36.1% to 20.8% in the period 2011-present.
Despite their omnipresence in Government, the combined vote of both parties has declined considerably since 2007 where 68.9% supported one of the two parties.
Now only 42.7% vote for these parties. However, combined with a junior coalition partner/s this percentage is enough to ensure they continue to get into Government.
This is where the Republic of Ireland is at right now, the two main parties are ideologically similar and there’s little chance of both parties being voted out of power.
A United Ireland would likely change this. If we assume negligible support for both parties in the six counties, then their combined vote share would’ve only been 31.5% if we had one general election for the entire 32 counties last year.
Given the electoral costs of United Ireland on these parties, can we believe they sincerely desire constitutional change?Until we see a genuine involvement in the North, which would help mitigate potential electoral costs of United Ireland then we should treat both parties as partitionist. A United Ireland is simply not in their electoral interests, and the cynic in me would say they’re more than happy with the current constitutional arrangement as it provides a tighter grip on power.
Sinn Féin on the other hand would’ve had their 2024 Irish General Election votes increase by over half, if Northern votes (from UK General Election) were factored in.
Effectively, Irish reunification makes it more probable to see an Irish Government being formed without either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.
Meaningful changes in Governments are necessary for people to see their vote actually matters (over four-tenths of people in both jurisdictions didn’t vote last year). Labour is a different Government to the Tories, just as the Republicans are radically different to Democrats.
The North would experience enormous democratic empowerment in the event of becoming part of a 32-county Republic. At present, the North is 2.8% of the UK electorate, however the 6-counties would represent 27% of an all-island electorate (based on figures from last year’s elections).
Effectively, constitutional change could make our vote in the North around ten times more powerful. If we assume proportional representation remains unchanged and constituency boundaries are adjusted fairly, then it’s possible the North would be responsible for electing approximately an additional 64 TDs.
For context, this is 16 more TDs than the largest party in the Republic i.e. Fianna Fáil. By comparison, the largest party in the UK – Labour, who don’t have any elected members here – has over 22 times the number of MPs than the entirety of the North of Ireland.
Why should a party that none of us vote for have this much say over our affairs? Yes, we have a devolved Government but the powers of Stormont –when it’s not suspended – pale in comparison to what we’d have in a fully sovereign 32-county democracy.
These figures are worth considering whenever someone urges us to focus on the ‘bread and butter’ issues – something that is normally uttered by those who are somewhat comfortable with the status-quo of partition – instead of constitutional preference. Partition has weakened our voice and is structural impediment to us having a meaningful say over seriously addressing such concerns.
Parties from the North may be necessary for forming a coalition Government, which could potentially strengthen 32-county cohesion. Alliance, for example, secured more votes than Labour and Social Democrats last year, despite sitting in a jurisdiction with an electorate just slightly over a third the size of ROI’s.
In a New Ireland, one would imagine some of the smaller parties will either merge or disappear. Will Unionist parties have outlived their purpose, or will they combine as one Dáil abstentionist outfit? Would Alliance become a 32-county cross-community liberal party?
The electoral shake-up of a United Ireland would be seismic and if acted on properly with an engaged electorate it could create something much better than what we currently have in both jurisdictions.
Perhaps, instead of age-old party loyalties, or voting largely on constitutional preference, we can instead have a more normal left-right political system.
Intuitively Sinn Féin would appear to be the main political benefactor. Sinn Féin obtained 21.1% of the entire votes cast in the 32 counties last year, whereas Fianna Fáil received 16.1%, and Fine Gael got 15.4%. This could indicate Sinn Féin are likely to be the largest party in a United Ireland, however they may not become overly dominant. In all likelihood one would imagine a more fragmented, multi-party coalition featuring multiple parties would form the initial Governments.Yes, Unionist and Republican, or pro-treaty and anti-treaty loyalties will likely linger in a United Ireland.
But with this democratic transformation, a weakened grip on power from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, a democratically empowered 6 counties, we can produce something incredible.
If you’re tired of the stagnation of politics in the South and want your vote in the North to carry real weight, then the structural change of reunification is necessary.
Carl Duffy is an Enniskillen native and member of Aontú.
Since 1932, each Irish Government has consisted of either Fine Gael and/or Fianna Fáil. Having a political duopoly isn’t unique to Ireland, but at this moment in time I’d argue it’s made our elections stale.
The UK and USA have duopolies too, but their recent elections have produced different Governments. The British were able to vote out Tories after more than a decade in power, and the Americans voted in Republicans over Democrats.
Yet, since 2020 the prospect of the Irish voting out both main parties doesn’t appear likely.
Fine Gael has been in every single Government since 2011. This is despite their vote share going from 36.1% to 20.8% in the period 2011-present.
Despite their omnipresence in Government, the combined vote of both parties has declined considerably since 2007 where 68.9% supported one of the two parties.
Now only 42.7% vote for these parties. However, combined with a junior coalition partner/s this percentage is enough to ensure they continue to get into Government.
This is where the Republic of Ireland is at right now, the two main parties are ideologically similar and there’s little chance of both parties being voted out of power.
A United Ireland would likely change this. If we assume negligible support for both parties in the six counties, then their combined vote share would’ve only been 31.5% if we had one general election for the entire 32 counties last year.
Given the electoral costs of United Ireland on these parties, can we believe they sincerely desire constitutional change?Until we see a genuine involvement in the North, which would help mitigate potential electoral costs of United Ireland then we should treat both parties as partitionist. A United Ireland is simply not in their electoral interests, and the cynic in me would say they’re more than happy with the current constitutional arrangement as it provides a tighter grip on power.
Sinn Féin on the other hand would’ve had their 2024 Irish General Election votes increase by over half, if Northern votes (from UK General Election) were factored in.
Effectively, Irish reunification makes it more probable to see an Irish Government being formed without either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.
Meaningful changes in Governments are necessary for people to see their vote actually matters (over four-tenths of people in both jurisdictions didn’t vote last year). Labour is a different Government to the Tories, just as the Republicans are radically different to Democrats.
The North would experience enormous democratic empowerment in the event of becoming part of a 32-county Republic. At present, the North is 2.8% of the UK electorate, however the 6-counties would represent 27% of an all-island electorate (based on figures from last year’s elections).
Effectively, constitutional change could make our vote in the North around ten times more powerful. If we assume proportional representation remains unchanged and constituency boundaries are adjusted fairly, then it’s possible the North would be responsible for electing approximately an additional 64 TDs.
For context, this is 16 more TDs than the largest party in the Republic i.e. Fianna Fáil. By comparison, the largest party in the UK – Labour, who don’t have any elected members here – has over 22 times the number of MPs than the entirety of the North of Ireland.
Why should a party that none of us vote for have this much say over our affairs? Yes, we have a devolved Government but the powers of Stormont –when it’s not suspended – pale in comparison to what we’d have in a fully sovereign 32-county democracy.
These figures are worth considering whenever someone urges us to focus on the ‘bread and butter’ issues – something that is normally uttered by those who are somewhat comfortable with the status-quo of partition – instead of constitutional preference. Partition has weakened our voice and is structural impediment to us having a meaningful say over seriously addressing such concerns.
Parties from the North may be necessary for forming a coalition Government, which could potentially strengthen 32-county cohesion. Alliance, for example, secured more votes than Labour and Social Democrats last year, despite sitting in a jurisdiction with an electorate just slightly over a third the size of ROI’s.
In a New Ireland, one would imagine some of the smaller parties will either merge or disappear. Will Unionist parties have outlived their purpose, or will they combine as one Dáil abstentionist outfit? Would Alliance become a 32-county cross-community liberal party?
The electoral shake-up of a United Ireland would be seismic and if acted on properly with an engaged electorate it could create something much better than what we currently have in both jurisdictions.
Perhaps, instead of age-old party loyalties, or voting largely on constitutional preference, we can instead have a more normal left-right political system.
Intuitively Sinn Féin would appear to be the main political benefactor. Sinn Féin obtained 21.1% of the entire votes cast in the 32 counties last year, whereas Fianna Fáil received 16.1%, and Fine Gael got 15.4%. This could indicate Sinn Féin are likely to be the largest party in a United Ireland, however they may not become overly dominant. In all likelihood one would imagine a more fragmented, multi-party coalition featuring multiple parties would form the initial Governments.Yes, Unionist and Republican, or pro-treaty and anti-treaty loyalties will likely linger in a United Ireland.
But with this democratic transformation, a weakened grip on power from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, a democratically empowered 6 counties, we can produce something incredible.
If you’re tired of the stagnation of politics in the South and want your vote in the North to carry real weight, then the structural change of reunification is necessary.
Carl Duffy is an Enniskillen native and member of Aontú.