There’s been some gloating from obvious quarters about the Irish election result and the relatively poor performance from Sinn Féin and, well, there seems little point dressing it up.
The party underperformed relative to its polling since the last Irish general election in 2020. Sinn Féin’s share of the vote was down five points this time and although third place in the popular vote and second in terms of seats won isn’t a terrible result, it’s not exactly shaking the foundations of the temple either.
As the party most obviously committed to Irish unity, any misstep from Sinn Féin has ramifications for all United Irelanders.
Clearly it would have been preferable to see Sinn Féin ministers sat behind desks, beginning preparations to see the unification of the island of Ireland hardwired into a new programme for government.
And it would have been quite the sight to see Mary-Lou McDonald as taoiseach meeting Keir Starmer for the first time, as she set out the Irish government’s position vis-à-vis the calling of a border poll.
Alas, ‘twas not to be. This time, at least.
So a stumble, but we have not fallen flat on our faces. For two reasons.
The first is that the question of Irish unity always involves a range of variables that might speed it up or slow it down – but there is nothing that is going to knock it off track altogether. This is what I mean when I repeatedly say it is inevitable. It is and remains so.
Imagine a large dashboard with a range of indicators.
The composition of the governments in Dublin and London. The inhabitant of the White House. The state of the Irish and British economies. The mood in Brussels. The vibe among MPs, TDs and MLAs. Public opinion on the streets of Dublin, Derry or Derby. Election results and opinion polls.
Each is liable to change and have some bearing on the overall calculation. Indeed, the prospect of Irish unity often seems to get nearer before pulling away again. But each time the gap narrows.
I liken it to a piece of driftwood in the surf. Tantalisingly close, but it will take its own time to land on the beach. But the fact it will do so is beyond question, given the elemental forces involved.
Consider this as an example.
If Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party had won the 2017 British general election it would be hard to imagine either him or his chancellor of the exchequer John McDonnell – both noted supporters of Irish unity – not pressing harder for constitutional change.
Of course, that scenario didn’t pan out. Instead, we got Theresa May and then Boris Johnson, who bequeathed the Windsor Framework and the permanent integration of Northern Ireland into the broader Irish economy as part of the EU.
A notch was turned towards Irish unity not at the instigation of a left-wing Labour prime minister, but at the behest of a right-wing Conservative government.
The second point is that if Sinn Féin had won this weekend, there still would not have been a border poll before 2030. Before that can realistically happen there needs to be real-world evidence that the people of the North want to see constitutional change.
The best opportunity to sense-check this will come in the 2028 local elections and the elections to the assembly and to Westminster in 2029.
If a majority of the vote goes to the bloc of candidates supporting Irish unity, then there should be a border poll. If there isn’t, there won’t be one.
All of which makes the next Irish election, also scheduled for 2029, the really important one to win. That government is the one with the best chance of uniting Ireland.
After 2029 we will know if its game-on or not. Sinn Féin’s claim that there should be a border poll sometime after 2030 is still eminently realisable.
By then, the new FFFG government (possibly with Labour involvement) will have endured four years of President Trump’s trade tariffs, which might spell trouble for the Irish economy given its reliance on US investment.
It means that while this was not a ‘change’ election, the next one might very well be.
Equally, Keir Starmer’s Labour government will have trodden some hard terrain by that time, dealing with a stagnant economy and a difficult set of elections to both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd in 2026.
Latest polling has support for Scottish independence as voters’ preferred constitutional outcome, with the SNP recovering a narrow polling lead, while Labour in Wales is now in joint-second place with Reform.
By 2029, there might be lots of chatter about the future of the UK over in Westminster, a growing appetite for Irish unity in the North and a new opening for Sinn Féin in Dublin, after a decade of FFFG politics.
So, let’s reset the clock from this weekend’s election.
2029 is the moment when its all to play for.
There’s been some gloating from obvious quarters about the Irish election result and the relatively poor performance from Sinn Féin and, well, there seems little point dressing it up.
The party underperformed relative to its polling since the last Irish general election in 2020. Sinn Féin’s share of the vote was down five points this time and although third place in the popular vote and second in terms of seats won isn’t a terrible result, it’s not exactly shaking the foundations of the temple either.
As the party most obviously committed to Irish unity, any misstep from Sinn Féin has ramifications for all United Irelanders.
Clearly it would have been preferable to see Sinn Féin ministers sat behind desks, beginning preparations to see the unification of the island of Ireland hardwired into a new programme for government.
And it would have been quite the sight to see Mary-Lou McDonald as taoiseach meeting Keir Starmer for the first time, as she set out the Irish government’s position vis-à-vis the calling of a border poll.
Alas, ‘twas not to be. This time, at least.
So a stumble, but we have not fallen flat on our faces. For two reasons.
The first is that the question of Irish unity always involves a range of variables that might speed it up or slow it down – but there is nothing that is going to knock it off track altogether. This is what I mean when I repeatedly say it is inevitable. It is and remains so.
Imagine a large dashboard with a range of indicators.
The composition of the governments in Dublin and London. The inhabitant of the White House. The state of the Irish and British economies. The mood in Brussels. The vibe among MPs, TDs and MLAs. Public opinion on the streets of Dublin, Derry or Derby. Election results and opinion polls.
Each is liable to change and have some bearing on the overall calculation. Indeed, the prospect of Irish unity often seems to get nearer before pulling away again. But each time the gap narrows.
I liken it to a piece of driftwood in the surf. Tantalisingly close, but it will take its own time to land on the beach. But the fact it will do so is beyond question, given the elemental forces involved.
Consider this as an example.
If Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party had won the 2017 British general election it would be hard to imagine either him or his chancellor of the exchequer John McDonnell – both noted supporters of Irish unity – not pressing harder for constitutional change.
Of course, that scenario didn’t pan out. Instead, we got Theresa May and then Boris Johnson, who bequeathed the Windsor Framework and the permanent integration of Northern Ireland into the broader Irish economy as part of the EU.
A notch was turned towards Irish unity not at the instigation of a left-wing Labour prime minister, but at the behest of a right-wing Conservative government.
The second point is that if Sinn Féin had won this weekend, there still would not have been a border poll before 2030. Before that can realistically happen there needs to be real-world evidence that the people of the North want to see constitutional change.
The best opportunity to sense-check this will come in the 2028 local elections and the elections to the assembly and to Westminster in 2029.
If a majority of the vote goes to the bloc of candidates supporting Irish unity, then there should be a border poll. If there isn’t, there won’t be one.
All of which makes the next Irish election, also scheduled for 2029, the really important one to win. That government is the one with the best chance of uniting Ireland.
After 2029 we will know if its game-on or not. Sinn Féin’s claim that there should be a border poll sometime after 2030 is still eminently realisable.
By then, the new FFFG government (possibly with Labour involvement) will have endured four years of President Trump’s trade tariffs, which might spell trouble for the Irish economy given its reliance on US investment.
It means that while this was not a ‘change’ election, the next one might very well be.
Equally, Keir Starmer’s Labour government will have trodden some hard terrain by that time, dealing with a stagnant economy and a difficult set of elections to both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd in 2026.
Latest polling has support for Scottish independence as voters’ preferred constitutional outcome, with the SNP recovering a narrow polling lead, while Labour in Wales is now in joint-second place with Reform.
By 2029, there might be lots of chatter about the future of the UK over in Westminster, a growing appetite for Irish unity in the North and a new opening for Sinn Féin in Dublin, after a decade of FFFG politics.
So, let’s reset the clock from this weekend’s election.
2029 is the moment when its all to play for.