I’ve noticed there are two canards that frequently bubble up whenever unionists talk about a border poll. Both claims are true in a narrow, literal sense. But they are also fundamentally wrong – naïve perhaps – in the bigger picture.
The first is the claim that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is responsible for calling a border poll (‘…shall exercise the power…’). Let’s clear this up: He or she is not. Yes, I’m fully aware what the Good Friday Agreement says. But you need to understand their role is of mid-level cabinet seniority. The concept of Chris Bryant or any of his 25 predecessors waking one morning and deciding off their own bat that there’s going to be a referendum is fanciful.
No, the British prime minister decides, along with his or her cabinet, judging the mood of the governing party, the centre of gravity of the House of Commons and broader British public opinion. It is a multi-layered judgment call that depends on there being demonstrable proof that Dublin is ready to receive the pass and that voters in the North are willing and able to put the ball in the back of the net.
So why does the Good Friday Agreement say otherwise?
Well, on three occasions over the past 50 years unionists have propped-up British governments in the House of Commons. First in the late 1970s when the Ulster Unionists kept Labour’s James Callaghan in post. Then in the mid-1990s when John Major’s Conservative government had lost its parliamentary majority. And finally in 2017, when Theresa May did a deal with the DUP to keep her administration in situ.
There’s an obvious problem with the British government acting as honest broker in calling a border poll if at the same time its reliant on unionist support to survive in parliament. That was foreseen in 1998 when the GFA was being drafted.
That’s why the decision to call a poll is a step removed from the prime minister of the day and thus not subject to horse-trading for potential unionist support. Leaving the Northern Ireland Secretary as the frontman for any decision. (In the sexist language of the agreement, the secretary of state is explicitly referred to as ‘him’).
The second partial falsehood relates to Irish-American politicians, who often refer to the US as a ‘co-guarantor’ of the Good Friday Agreement. No they’re not!’ squeal unionists.
US Senator Richie Neal, responding to Andy Burnham’s remark about Irish unity being ‘off the table,’ tweeted: ‘As a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement, the United States has a critical role to play in ensuring that the people of Ireland have the right to control their own destiny.’
The DUP’s Gordon Lyons, who looks a little too pleased with himself any day of the week, sneered in response: ‘Hats off to Richie Neal, it takes a certain type of talent to be so confident and assertive yet be so wrong at the same time.’
But Richie Neal is right; the US is a co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement. Not in a pernickety, legalistic sense. The agreement is a treaty between two sovereign states about the joint management and the eventual, potential (inevitable?) transfer of sovereignty of the six counties of north-east Ulster between them. Logically that does not involve any other state actors.
But neither is it the whole story. Both the US and the European Union were midwives or godparents – co-guarantors in all but name – to the agreement ever happening. They helped shape the context in which a deal was possible. Bill Clinton played an enormous role in twisting John Major’s arm up his back – given he was going as slowly as he could in negotiations in the mid-1990s, while Trimble and his colleagues were propping up his parliamentary position (see the above point).
More broadly, US involvement gave the Irish side a confidence that the British would be expected to deal straight. The result is that, for Britain, northern Irish affairs were never again an ‘internal’ matter and have now been internationalised for decades.
So, George Mitchell, a former senate majority leader for the Democrats, chaired the talks for years. US and EU money as well as diplomatic heft got the deal over the line and has been instrumental in keeping it lubricated ever since.
The plain truth that always eludes unionists is that they have no veto over progress. Once things align in Belfast, Dublin and London, a border poll is on. And once again the US and EU will be there. Bringing investment and support to make it work.
Co-guarantors of the new Ireland
I’ve noticed there are two canards that frequently bubble up whenever unionists talk about a border poll. Both claims are true in a narrow, literal sense. But they are also fundamentally wrong – naïve perhaps – in the bigger picture.
The first is the claim that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is responsible for calling a border poll (‘…shall exercise the power…’). Let’s clear this up: He or she is not. Yes, I’m fully aware what the Good Friday Agreement says. But you need to understand their role is of mid-level cabinet seniority. The concept of Chris Bryant or any of his 25 predecessors waking one morning and deciding off their own bat that there’s going to be a referendum is fanciful.
No, the British prime minister decides, along with his or her cabinet, judging the mood of the governing party, the centre of gravity of the House of Commons and broader British public opinion. It is a multi-layered judgment call that depends on there being demonstrable proof that Dublin is ready to receive the pass and that voters in the North are willing and able to put the ball in the back of the net.
So why does the Good Friday Agreement say otherwise?
Well, on three occasions over the past 50 years unionists have propped-up British governments in the House of Commons. First in the late 1970s when the Ulster Unionists kept Labour’s James Callaghan in post. Then in the mid-1990s when John Major’s Conservative government had lost its parliamentary majority. And finally in 2017, when Theresa May did a deal with the DUP to keep her administration in situ.
There’s an obvious problem with the British government acting as honest broker in calling a border poll if at the same time its reliant on unionist support to survive in parliament. That was foreseen in 1998 when the GFA was being drafted.
That’s why the decision to call a poll is a step removed from the prime minister of the day and thus not subject to horse-trading for potential unionist support. Leaving the Northern Ireland Secretary as the frontman for any decision. (In the sexist language of the agreement, the secretary of state is explicitly referred to as ‘him’).
The second partial falsehood relates to Irish-American politicians, who often refer to the US as a ‘co-guarantor’ of the Good Friday Agreement. No they’re not!’ squeal unionists.
US Senator Richie Neal, responding to Andy Burnham’s remark about Irish unity being ‘off the table,’ tweeted: ‘As a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement, the United States has a critical role to play in ensuring that the people of Ireland have the right to control their own destiny.’
The DUP’s Gordon Lyons, who looks a little too pleased with himself any day of the week, sneered in response: ‘Hats off to Richie Neal, it takes a certain type of talent to be so confident and assertive yet be so wrong at the same time.’
But Richie Neal is right; the US is a co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement. Not in a pernickety, legalistic sense. The agreement is a treaty between two sovereign states about the joint management and the eventual, potential (inevitable?) transfer of sovereignty of the six counties of north-east Ulster between them. Logically that does not involve any other state actors.
But neither is it the whole story. Both the US and the European Union were midwives or godparents – co-guarantors in all but name – to the agreement ever happening. They helped shape the context in which a deal was possible. Bill Clinton played an enormous role in twisting John Major’s arm up his back – given he was going as slowly as he could in negotiations in the mid-1990s, while Trimble and his colleagues were propping up his parliamentary position (see the above point).
More broadly, US involvement gave the Irish side a confidence that the British would be expected to deal straight. The result is that, for Britain, northern Irish affairs were never again an ‘internal’ matter and have now been internationalised for decades.
So, George Mitchell, a former senate majority leader for the Democrats, chaired the talks for years. US and EU money as well as diplomatic heft got the deal over the line and has been instrumental in keeping it lubricated ever since.
The plain truth that always eludes unionists is that they have no veto over progress. Once things align in Belfast, Dublin and London, a border poll is on. And once again the US and EU will be there. Bringing investment and support to make it work.
Co-guarantors of the new Ireland