By Paul Breen
At present, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the debate about a Border Poll. The problem is not the prospect of a poll itself, but the lack of clarity around it. Like Atlantic drift, change is coming slowly and persistently, reshaping the political landscape over time. However, in Westminster, there has been no formal recognition of the sea change.
That ignorance of what’s happening across the Irish Sea is possibly shaped by a desire to avoid rocking the boat. However, it could have the opposite effect, polluting the waters of debate instead. We already see this toxicity most visibly on social media. While platforms like X are hardly reliable barometers of public opinion, they do reveal something important. In the absence of clarity, anxiety rushes in. Fear, rumour, and assumptions fill the vacuum. People begin to argue about worst-case scenarios rather than real proposals.
At the centre of this sea of uncertainty sits Hilary Benn. Benn has shown little inclination to clarify when, how, or under what conditions a Border Poll might be called. Northern Ireland is treated as something largely settled, a process completed rather than one still unfolding. At times, it feels as though British politicians view it like a Netflix series that has finished its run. The box set has been watched, shelved, and quietly put away.
That attitude is not new. The Irish question has rarely been central to the ambitions of Secretaries of State. The position is usually either a halting point or a stepping stone for incumbents. Mo Mowlam was probably one of the few with a real passion for solving the problems of the people that she was working with. That was very rare in Britain’s dealings with the island that’s always played second fiddle to its international adventures.
Everyone knows the most famous episode of that. In 1913, The Home Rule Bill was delayed and eventually shelved by the outbreak of the First World War. And sadly, once again, the Irish question risks being parked amid larger geopolitical priorities. Under Keir Starmer, British political energy appears increasingly focused on Cold War type security and international alignment. Britain speaks confidently about sovereignty elsewhere while remaining hesitant about democratic clarity closer to home.
Toxicity without a table
If allowed to drift, this situation will get toxic. In the absence of a clear framework or timetable, media coverage of the Border Poll debate is often reduced to a contest between tabloid caricatures of hardened loyalism and an emboldened nationalism. But that’s not the everyday reality for most people who just want some sense of what the future holds.
A Border Poll, if it comes, will not be shaped by the extremes. It’s going to be decided by people in the middle ground most likely. And that middle ground isn’t even necessarily defined by religion. Sometimes commentators mistake the middle ground as being the territory of liberal Protestants who enjoy watching the rugby. But it’s not just that.
The middle ground is a place peopled by those who are sort of agnostic when it comes to constitutional politics. My own research from a few years ago showed that even some people who vote Sinn Féin would be happy enough with the status quo if it kept the peace. These people, just as much as anyone, need robust arguments to persuade them of Irish unity.
The people who will shape the outcome of a Border Poll are far more likely to resemble the characters created by Lisa McGee, than Bobby Sands or Jamie Bryson. They will be the real-life versions of those who feature in Derry Girls or How to Get to Heaven from Belfast.
So if Hilary Benn thinks he’s letting a genie out of the bottle by opening up discussions around a Border Poll, he’s very far out of touch with reality. By bringing all this into everyday conversations, into the open, he normalises and humanises it. He takes away mystique, stigma, paranoia and other big words beloved of us academics.
By keeping the idea of a Border Poll vague and distant from everyday realities, Hilary Benn allows the extremes to dominate the imagination. This is straight from the colonial playbook: keep things undefined, keep ordinary people divided, and let anxiety do the work while decisions continue to be directed from a distance.
Unionism’s sea change
Again, playing devil’s advocate, maybe Hilary Benn fears Unionist reaction. And partially he’s right to be fearful. I think on the nationalist side we do sometimes underestimate how much hostility there is in some quarters to the prospect of a united Ireland. But the way to address that is to spark the discussion. Let’s see how realistic this all is and be open to the very real possibility that many in the Unionist community will remain unconvinced.
But there are hopeful signs this won’t be the case. The reopening of a Presbyterian church on the Falls Road, as recently reported by RTÉ, is one such example. So too is the increasing love of the Irish language amongst people of a Protestant background. It is a quiet reminder that identities are not fixed or defined by religions alone and that civic life can move forward even when politics appears stuck.
There are also people within loyalism willing to debate this. They know that the nature of these islands is changing irreversibly in so many ways. There’s no point trying to hold back the tide. They just want to be sure their culture isn’t washed away.
Shores of the future
The greatest reassurance to Unionism is that none of this will happen overnight. The demand for a Border Poll is not to fast track or trick anyone into a united Ireland. It’s to see what emerges from a conversation that hasn’t included everyone on this island, up to now.
Political change will be like acclimatising fish to a new tank. They adjust slowly to new temperatures and new water chemistry, often quietly and in the dark of night. Things are happening behind the scenes no doubt but it would be best to have all this in the open.
A Border Poll would not necessarily rock the boat across the Irish Sea. That’s a thing Hilary Benn needs to accept. He should watch an episode of How to Get to Heaven and see a place of as many Normal People as Sally Rooney’s Dublin or any English soap opera.
Three decades have passed since the Good Friday Agreement. People want to see what the shores of the future will look like, Mister Benn. You can’t keep shelving this sideways like an old Netflix show forever. Plans for a Border Poll can detox the impasse for everyone.
By Paul Breen
At present, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the debate about a Border Poll. The problem is not the prospect of a poll itself, but the lack of clarity around it. Like Atlantic drift, change is coming slowly and persistently, reshaping the political landscape over time. However, in Westminster, there has been no formal recognition of the sea change.
That ignorance of what’s happening across the Irish Sea is possibly shaped by a desire to avoid rocking the boat. However, it could have the opposite effect, polluting the waters of debate instead. We already see this toxicity most visibly on social media. While platforms like X are hardly reliable barometers of public opinion, they do reveal something important. In the absence of clarity, anxiety rushes in. Fear, rumour, and assumptions fill the vacuum. People begin to argue about worst-case scenarios rather than real proposals.
At the centre of this sea of uncertainty sits Hilary Benn. Benn has shown little inclination to clarify when, how, or under what conditions a Border Poll might be called. Northern Ireland is treated as something largely settled, a process completed rather than one still unfolding. At times, it feels as though British politicians view it like a Netflix series that has finished its run. The box set has been watched, shelved, and quietly put away.
That attitude is not new. The Irish question has rarely been central to the ambitions of Secretaries of State. The position is usually either a halting point or a stepping stone for incumbents. Mo Mowlam was probably one of the few with a real passion for solving the problems of the people that she was working with. That was very rare in Britain’s dealings with the island that’s always played second fiddle to its international adventures.
Everyone knows the most famous episode of that. In 1913, The Home Rule Bill was delayed and eventually shelved by the outbreak of the First World War. And sadly, once again, the Irish question risks being parked amid larger geopolitical priorities. Under Keir Starmer, British political energy appears increasingly focused on Cold War type security and international alignment. Britain speaks confidently about sovereignty elsewhere while remaining hesitant about democratic clarity closer to home.
Toxicity without a table
If allowed to drift, this situation will get toxic. In the absence of a clear framework or timetable, media coverage of the Border Poll debate is often reduced to a contest between tabloid caricatures of hardened loyalism and an emboldened nationalism. But that’s not the everyday reality for most people who just want some sense of what the future holds.
A Border Poll, if it comes, will not be shaped by the extremes. It’s going to be decided by people in the middle ground most likely. And that middle ground isn’t even necessarily defined by religion. Sometimes commentators mistake the middle ground as being the territory of liberal Protestants who enjoy watching the rugby. But it’s not just that.
The middle ground is a place peopled by those who are sort of agnostic when it comes to constitutional politics. My own research from a few years ago showed that even some people who vote Sinn Féin would be happy enough with the status quo if it kept the peace. These people, just as much as anyone, need robust arguments to persuade them of Irish unity.
The people who will shape the outcome of a Border Poll are far more likely to resemble the characters created by Lisa McGee, than Bobby Sands or Jamie Bryson. They will be the real-life versions of those who feature in Derry Girls or How to Get to Heaven from Belfast.
So if Hilary Benn thinks he’s letting a genie out of the bottle by opening up discussions around a Border Poll, he’s very far out of touch with reality. By bringing all this into everyday conversations, into the open, he normalises and humanises it. He takes away mystique, stigma, paranoia and other big words beloved of us academics.
By keeping the idea of a Border Poll vague and distant from everyday realities, Hilary Benn allows the extremes to dominate the imagination. This is straight from the colonial playbook: keep things undefined, keep ordinary people divided, and let anxiety do the work while decisions continue to be directed from a distance.
Unionism’s sea change
Again, playing devil’s advocate, maybe Hilary Benn fears Unionist reaction. And partially he’s right to be fearful. I think on the nationalist side we do sometimes underestimate how much hostility there is in some quarters to the prospect of a united Ireland. But the way to address that is to spark the discussion. Let’s see how realistic this all is and be open to the very real possibility that many in the Unionist community will remain unconvinced.
But there are hopeful signs this won’t be the case. The reopening of a Presbyterian church on the Falls Road, as recently reported by RTÉ, is one such example. So too is the increasing love of the Irish language amongst people of a Protestant background. It is a quiet reminder that identities are not fixed or defined by religions alone and that civic life can move forward even when politics appears stuck.
There are also people within loyalism willing to debate this. They know that the nature of these islands is changing irreversibly in so many ways. There’s no point trying to hold back the tide. They just want to be sure their culture isn’t washed away.
Shores of the future
The greatest reassurance to Unionism is that none of this will happen overnight. The demand for a Border Poll is not to fast track or trick anyone into a united Ireland. It’s to see what emerges from a conversation that hasn’t included everyone on this island, up to now.
Political change will be like acclimatising fish to a new tank. They adjust slowly to new temperatures and new water chemistry, often quietly and in the dark of night. Things are happening behind the scenes no doubt but it would be best to have all this in the open.
A Border Poll would not necessarily rock the boat across the Irish Sea. That’s a thing Hilary Benn needs to accept. He should watch an episode of How to Get to Heaven and see a place of as many Normal People as Sally Rooney’s Dublin or any English soap opera.
Three decades have passed since the Good Friday Agreement. People want to see what the shores of the future will look like, Mister Benn. You can’t keep shelving this sideways like an old Netflix show forever. Plans for a Border Poll can detox the impasse for everyone.