Has our Red/Blue political system ever looked weaker or more irrelevant? British politics, so long the preserve of the Conservative and Labour parties, is currently a five-party affair, with the old duopoly panting to keep up with Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems. A recent YouGov poll looking at where the various parties started 2025 in terms of their polling and where they finished up says it all. No surprises for guessing that Labour crashed eight points to 18%. Or that the Tories were down five on 17%. The big winners were Reform – on 28% – up five from the previous January. While the Greens ballooned nine points to 17%.
The energy in British politics is now at the periphery. Centrist politics is marooned. Voters appear tired of compromise and caution. The campaigning brio and easy platitudes of Nigel Farage on the right, or new Green Party leader Zack Polanski on the left are driving the agenda. But the challenge to our system is not just ideological. Its geographic, too.
The Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cmyru are also rewriting the script. Both parties are currently leading the polls in Scotland and Wales and look set to win the May elections to the Scottish Parliament and Senedd. In all likelihood, this will see a nationalist politician serving as first minister in three of the four constituent parts of the UK.
Welcome to the rise of the peripherals.
Now I fully accept there are caveats here. The role of Northern Ireland First Minister is shared with the DUP. And while Plaid looks set to control the Senedd after May, with a precipitous decline for the once-impregnable Welsh Labour party, some voters appear to be backing the Welsh nationalists to keep out Reform.
In Scotland, too, we need to be alive that although polling over the question of Scottish independence remains tight, there is no clear lead for independence and neither does the Scottish government have a mechanism to call a second referendum on quitting the UK.
Nevertheless, it still feels like we are crossing a Rubicon. Devolution has not fended-off demands for full-blown independence. The limitations of the British state – either from Westminster and Whitehall, or from Cardiff of Edinburgh – are all too apparent.
The Welsh valleys or the tough streets of Glasgow or West Belfast have not seen enough change since the devolved institutions were established in the late 1990s. Certainly not enough to prevent their inhabitants from dreaming bigger and desiring to take their nationhood into their own hands.
It might not be clear whether what we are seeing is structural or cyclical. Perhaps voters will turn back to the UK as a concept, or maybe they will be inspired from these successes to continue to write a new national story. What is does mean is that Westminster now has three constitutional fires ablaze on the moorland. The next few years will tell us whether they burn the house down.
Has our Red/Blue political system ever looked weaker or more irrelevant? British politics, so long the preserve of the Conservative and Labour parties, is currently a five-party affair, with the old duopoly panting to keep up with Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems. A recent YouGov poll looking at where the various parties started 2025 in terms of their polling and where they finished up says it all. No surprises for guessing that Labour crashed eight points to 18%. Or that the Tories were down five on 17%. The big winners were Reform – on 28% – up five from the previous January. While the Greens ballooned nine points to 17%.
The energy in British politics is now at the periphery. Centrist politics is marooned. Voters appear tired of compromise and caution. The campaigning brio and easy platitudes of Nigel Farage on the right, or new Green Party leader Zack Polanski on the left are driving the agenda. But the challenge to our system is not just ideological. Its geographic, too.
The Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cmyru are also rewriting the script. Both parties are currently leading the polls in Scotland and Wales and look set to win the May elections to the Scottish Parliament and Senedd. In all likelihood, this will see a nationalist politician serving as first minister in three of the four constituent parts of the UK.
Welcome to the rise of the peripherals.
Now I fully accept there are caveats here. The role of Northern Ireland First Minister is shared with the DUP. And while Plaid looks set to control the Senedd after May, with a precipitous decline for the once-impregnable Welsh Labour party, some voters appear to be backing the Welsh nationalists to keep out Reform.
In Scotland, too, we need to be alive that although polling over the question of Scottish independence remains tight, there is no clear lead for independence and neither does the Scottish government have a mechanism to call a second referendum on quitting the UK.
Nevertheless, it still feels like we are crossing a Rubicon. Devolution has not fended-off demands for full-blown independence. The limitations of the British state – either from Westminster and Whitehall, or from Cardiff of Edinburgh – are all too apparent.
The Welsh valleys or the tough streets of Glasgow or West Belfast have not seen enough change since the devolved institutions were established in the late 1990s. Certainly not enough to prevent their inhabitants from dreaming bigger and desiring to take their nationhood into their own hands.
It might not be clear whether what we are seeing is structural or cyclical. Perhaps voters will turn back to the UK as a concept, or maybe they will be inspired from these successes to continue to write a new national story. What is does mean is that Westminster now has three constitutional fires ablaze on the moorland. The next few years will tell us whether they burn the house down.