By Martin Burns
“Significant numbers of Northern Protestants who oppose Irish Unity still support planning for that possibility”.
To put it mildly, a lot of things happened in 2025. There was a war waging in Europe and one in the Middle East. In Great Britain, you had a Labour government that had come to power in an unprecedented landslide gradually becoming undone, while in the Irish Republic Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael cobbled together a coalition government with the help of some Independents. Across the Atlantic, President Trump launched into his second term with gusto, destroying democratic norms daily. It is easy to see how the subtle but no less important stories did not garner the attention they deserve.
One of the stories that was less noted than it should have been was polling by the Arins (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South)/Irish Times project. This project provides “independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.” In February 2025, the Arins/Irish Times project released their first findings of the year. While most of the media attention was focused on the percentage that would support a united Ireland, I was most struck by this conclusion:
Few unionists want to see Irish unity come about. However, almost four in 10 (38 percent) voters in the North from a Protestant background said that it was important that there is preparation for the possibility of a united Ireland.
Further, the research shows that 12 percent of Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) members and 14 percent of Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) members feel that it is “extremely important” to plan for a united Ireland. Thirty-eight (38) percent of Alliance party members say it is extremely important to plan for a united Ireland.
The Arins/Irish Times project research and analysis shows that Protestant voters in Northern Ireland are open to discussing the idea of Irish unity. These Northern Protestants may well be opposed to the idea of Irish unity but they are willing and able to be part of the conversation about the constitutional future of Ireland, and they realize that it is important to plan for a united Ireland. Of course, it is worth remembering that any poll is just a snapshot in time.
The research is also significant in pointing out what should be obvious to everyone: Protestants in Northern Ireland are not a monolith. The leaders of both the DUP and the UUP may be united in their opposition to debating the future of Northern Ireland, but their members are not. Interestingly, Alliance party members (38 percent say it is important) are more committed to planning for a united Ireland than are Sinn Féinmembers in the Irish republic (34 percent who answer extremely important).
For too long, journalists have accepted at face value the idea that all DUP and UUP members are opposed to joining the conversation around a united Ireland. The Arins/Irish Times should give journalists an impetus to go back and talk to DUP and UUP members and ask them not about how they feel about a united Ireland, but whether they feel it is important or not to plan for the possibility of a united Ireland.
As we move into 2026, we need to abandon the idea that Northern Ireland Protestants are simply unwilling to enter the conversation about the constitutional future of Northern Ireland. The evidence here indicates quite clearly that while they do not support a united Ireland today, Protestants in Northern Ireland realize that planning for that possibility makes sense.
By Martin Burns
“Significant numbers of Northern Protestants who oppose Irish Unity still support planning for that possibility”.
To put it mildly, a lot of things happened in 2025. There was a war waging in Europe and one in the Middle East. In Great Britain, you had a Labour government that had come to power in an unprecedented landslide gradually becoming undone, while in the Irish Republic Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael cobbled together a coalition government with the help of some Independents. Across the Atlantic, President Trump launched into his second term with gusto, destroying democratic norms daily. It is easy to see how the subtle but no less important stories did not garner the attention they deserve.
One of the stories that was less noted than it should have been was polling by the Arins (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South)/Irish Times project. This project provides “independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.” In February 2025, the Arins/Irish Times project released their first findings of the year. While most of the media attention was focused on the percentage that would support a united Ireland, I was most struck by this conclusion:
Few unionists want to see Irish unity come about. However, almost four in 10 (38 percent) voters in the North from a Protestant background said that it was important that there is preparation for the possibility of a united Ireland.
Further, the research shows that 12 percent of Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) members and 14 percent of Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) members feel that it is “extremely important” to plan for a united Ireland. Thirty-eight (38) percent of Alliance party members say it is extremely important to plan for a united Ireland.
The Arins/Irish Times project research and analysis shows that Protestant voters in Northern Ireland are open to discussing the idea of Irish unity. These Northern Protestants may well be opposed to the idea of Irish unity but they are willing and able to be part of the conversation about the constitutional future of Ireland, and they realize that it is important to plan for a united Ireland. Of course, it is worth remembering that any poll is just a snapshot in time.
The research is also significant in pointing out what should be obvious to everyone: Protestants in Northern Ireland are not a monolith. The leaders of both the DUP and the UUP may be united in their opposition to debating the future of Northern Ireland, but their members are not. Interestingly, Alliance party members (38 percent say it is important) are more committed to planning for a united Ireland than are Sinn Féinmembers in the Irish republic (34 percent who answer extremely important).
For too long, journalists have accepted at face value the idea that all DUP and UUP members are opposed to joining the conversation around a united Ireland. The Arins/Irish Times should give journalists an impetus to go back and talk to DUP and UUP members and ask them not about how they feel about a united Ireland, but whether they feel it is important or not to plan for the possibility of a united Ireland.
As we move into 2026, we need to abandon the idea that Northern Ireland Protestants are simply unwilling to enter the conversation about the constitutional future of Northern Ireland. The evidence here indicates quite clearly that while they do not support a united Ireland today, Protestants in Northern Ireland realize that planning for that possibility makes sense.