The final seats in the Dáil have been allocated in the Irish Republic and the ballot boxes put away until the forthcoming Presidential election, due to take place next year. The various parties and individuals are presently assessing their positions in the wake of the general election result.
The overall winner of the election was Micheál Martin and his Fianna Fáil party. Ireland’s great survivor and a person whom I worked closely with for several years, as my former boss in the Department of Foreign Affairs, is now undisputably Ireland’s foremost politician. Fianna Fáil emerged with 48 seats, well ahead of the next biggest party, Sinn Féin, on 39. Final seat numbers are a much more accurate measurement of public opinion than simple first preference tallies since they incorporate second and third choice votes by the electorate. Martin now can largely dictate a more favourable outcome for his party in the next Irish Government. He has made it clear that Fianna Fáil will demand the Justice and Policing portfolio, an area where the last Government is widely regarded as having a poor record.
Martin has, in recent times, adopted a strongly anti-Sinn Féin stance, which has delighted the establishment in Dublin and Cork. I am assured by people close to him that he is much more sympathetic to Northern Nationalists in private. His public position has perplexed some of his own party members, but given the electoral performance, Martin is unassailable at the moment. However, it would be a mistake to believe that Fianna Fáil will never return to its Republican and anti-partition roots but that is unlikely in the short term.
Despite the mainstream media’s glee and describing it as a major setback, Sinn Féin, in the circumstances, had a satisfactory outcome, given the position the party was in at the recent local elections and the hostile media environment it faced. In the 2020 contest, Sinn Féin had an unexpected surge in support in the last few days, from a very low base. Much of that new support was soft and temporary. The task the party had was to solidify as much of that vote as possible. In the end, it managed to hold onto its gains in seat terms but in truth it did suffer a loss on the first preference vote. This was partly compensated by a much greater tendency of supporters of other parties to transfer to Sinn Féin, further down the ballot paper than in the past. It now has a strong cohort of sitting T.Ds. Given this result, Sinn Féin has broken the duopoly of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which has dominated the Republic’s political scene since the Irish Civil War. These two parties combined regularly polled over 80% of the total vote, whereas on this occasion it was 42.7%, just marginally down on the 2020 total but still the worst ever result. In 1997, the modern Sinn Féin party took only 2.5% of the popular vote and managed to elect one T.D., Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.
I spoke to a senior Sinn Féin figure before the election and he was fearful of the outcome, given the local election result and a number of scandals in the party. Sinn Féin badly lost its way in the lead up to the current set of polls in areas such as immigration, “hate speech” legislation and referendums. He said that if Sinn Féin got anywhere near the number of seats they achieved in 2020, they would regard it as an outstanding result. In the event, they obtained 39 seats, an increase of 2, albeit in an increased sized Dáil.
The ship was steadied with a number of new policy documents and reversals in approach in the contentious areas. In addition, party leader, Mary Lou McDonald, put in a very strong performance in the campaign, showing a much better capacity to relate to ordinary voters than the leaders of the other big parties. The results showed strong regional differences with Sinn Féin polling well in the border counties and Dublin but relatively weak in Munster, apart from Waterford. The party will have to address its weakness in the southern Province, if it is to aspire to becoming the largest party in the Dáil.
Fine Gael is coming out of the election bruised and facing difficult negotiations with a triumphant Fianna Fáil over a new Government formation. Based on opinion polling, they appeared to be in the driving seat in the run up to the election. The current Taoiseach, Simon Harris, appeared accident prone and lightweight on the hustings. The jibe from Fianna Fáil leader Martin that the Fine Gael campaign consisted of running hither and thither, without any real policy substance, hit home and some traditional Fine Gael voters in Dublin switched to Fianna Fáil in the week before the election. Harris will face a lot of internal criticism about his botched performance.
Republican candidates did well outside of Sinn Féin. Aontú had a very good election, and greatly increased its vote share and was unlucky not to secure more than two seats. Former Sinn Féin, now independents, Carol Nolan and Brian Stanley, were comfortably elected. Also, the strong showing by Independent Ireland, traditionally eurocritical, saw stalwarts like Michael Collins, Michael Fitzmaurice, etc., elected.
The next Irish Government will be a combination of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, most probably supported by a number of disparate independents. However, in that scenario it will not be able to use the defeated Greens as a lightening rod for popular discontent, as it did in the last Dáil. This will present difficulties especially if the international environment turns hostile to Ireland’s business model of depending on tax concessions in the FDI area. With Brussels, and now Trump in Washington, eyeing the regime in Ireland in an unfavourable light, there are undoubtably storm clouds ahead. There will also be strong opposition to any further diminution of the country’s traditional neutrality, especially plans to remove the need for a United Nations mandate for deploying Irish troops overseas. The role of the Opposition will be vital in holding the new Government to account.
The final seats in the Dáil have been allocated in the Irish Republic and the ballot boxes put away until the forthcoming Presidential election, due to take place next year. The various parties and individuals are presently assessing their positions in the wake of the general election result.
The overall winner of the election was Micheál Martin and his Fianna Fáil party. Ireland’s great survivor and a person whom I worked closely with for several years, as my former boss in the Department of Foreign Affairs, is now undisputably Ireland’s foremost politician. Fianna Fáil emerged with 48 seats, well ahead of the next biggest party, Sinn Féin, on 39. Final seat numbers are a much more accurate measurement of public opinion than simple first preference tallies since they incorporate second and third choice votes by the electorate. Martin now can largely dictate a more favourable outcome for his party in the next Irish Government. He has made it clear that Fianna Fáil will demand the Justice and Policing portfolio, an area where the last Government is widely regarded as having a poor record.
Martin has, in recent times, adopted a strongly anti-Sinn Féin stance, which has delighted the establishment in Dublin and Cork. I am assured by people close to him that he is much more sympathetic to Northern Nationalists in private. His public position has perplexed some of his own party members, but given the electoral performance, Martin is unassailable at the moment. However, it would be a mistake to believe that Fianna Fáil will never return to its Republican and anti-partition roots but that is unlikely in the short term.
Despite the mainstream media’s glee and describing it as a major setback, Sinn Féin, in the circumstances, had a satisfactory outcome, given the position the party was in at the recent local elections and the hostile media environment it faced. In the 2020 contest, Sinn Féin had an unexpected surge in support in the last few days, from a very low base. Much of that new support was soft and temporary. The task the party had was to solidify as much of that vote as possible. In the end, it managed to hold onto its gains in seat terms but in truth it did suffer a loss on the first preference vote. This was partly compensated by a much greater tendency of supporters of other parties to transfer to Sinn Féin, further down the ballot paper than in the past. It now has a strong cohort of sitting T.Ds. Given this result, Sinn Féin has broken the duopoly of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which has dominated the Republic’s political scene since the Irish Civil War. These two parties combined regularly polled over 80% of the total vote, whereas on this occasion it was 42.7%, just marginally down on the 2020 total but still the worst ever result. In 1997, the modern Sinn Féin party took only 2.5% of the popular vote and managed to elect one T.D., Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.
I spoke to a senior Sinn Féin figure before the election and he was fearful of the outcome, given the local election result and a number of scandals in the party. Sinn Féin badly lost its way in the lead up to the current set of polls in areas such as immigration, “hate speech” legislation and referendums. He said that if Sinn Féin got anywhere near the number of seats they achieved in 2020, they would regard it as an outstanding result. In the event, they obtained 39 seats, an increase of 2, albeit in an increased sized Dáil.
The ship was steadied with a number of new policy documents and reversals in approach in the contentious areas. In addition, party leader, Mary Lou McDonald, put in a very strong performance in the campaign, showing a much better capacity to relate to ordinary voters than the leaders of the other big parties. The results showed strong regional differences with Sinn Féin polling well in the border counties and Dublin but relatively weak in Munster, apart from Waterford. The party will have to address its weakness in the southern Province, if it is to aspire to becoming the largest party in the Dáil.
Fine Gael is coming out of the election bruised and facing difficult negotiations with a triumphant Fianna Fáil over a new Government formation. Based on opinion polling, they appeared to be in the driving seat in the run up to the election. The current Taoiseach, Simon Harris, appeared accident prone and lightweight on the hustings. The jibe from Fianna Fáil leader Martin that the Fine Gael campaign consisted of running hither and thither, without any real policy substance, hit home and some traditional Fine Gael voters in Dublin switched to Fianna Fáil in the week before the election. Harris will face a lot of internal criticism about his botched performance.
Republican candidates did well outside of Sinn Féin. Aontú had a very good election, and greatly increased its vote share and was unlucky not to secure more than two seats. Former Sinn Féin, now independents, Carol Nolan and Brian Stanley, were comfortably elected. Also, the strong showing by Independent Ireland, traditionally eurocritical, saw stalwarts like Michael Collins, Michael Fitzmaurice, etc., elected.
The next Irish Government will be a combination of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, most probably supported by a number of disparate independents. However, in that scenario it will not be able to use the defeated Greens as a lightening rod for popular discontent, as it did in the last Dáil. This will present difficulties especially if the international environment turns hostile to Ireland’s business model of depending on tax concessions in the FDI area. With Brussels, and now Trump in Washington, eyeing the regime in Ireland in an unfavourable light, there are undoubtably storm clouds ahead. There will also be strong opposition to any further diminution of the country’s traditional neutrality, especially plans to remove the need for a United Nations mandate for deploying Irish troops overseas. The role of the Opposition will be vital in holding the new Government to account.