Kevin Meagher reflects on that election and is already thinking about the next one!
1. First and foremost, this was not a ‘change’ election. Older Irish voters are a contented lot. And content, certainly, to let their children and grandchildren swing in an overheated housing market that is forcing many to flee the country in despair. So, apple carts were unturned. Traces left unkicked. And with a miserly turnout of just 59.7%, the Irish were not desperate enough for change, so didn’t vote for it.
2. The tortoise won. It’s hard to fathom what Micheál Martin’s political superpower is. He’s the very opposite of charisma. Quiet, dry and thoroughly boring – what’s the appeal? Staying power, presumably, which he has(admittedly) in abundance. First place with 48 seats is a win, whichever way you cut it. At 64 years of age, the question is whether he intends staying around for the next five years? If Martin retires, it might see the Soldiers of Destiny revert to a more reliably ‘green’ leader which might in turn have implications for how long the new (inevitable) FFFG coalition lasts.
3. What did Sinn Fein get wrong? A surge of support saw them top the popular vote at the 2020 election, followed by four years of healthy opinion poll leads, seeing them rise as high as 37 percent. So, the 19 percent they achieved this time around is impossible to explain away as anything other than a calamitous decline in fortunes. While running a slick campaign, SF failed to reassure older voters that it was a fit party of government, while forfeiting other parts of its electoral base in defence of its unwavering support for mass immigration. Big lessons to learn.
4. United Irelanders did pretty well. In addition to SF landing in second place with 39 seats, Aontú won two, with ex-Sinn Feiners, Brian Stanley and Carol Nolan, also triumphing. Micheál Martin might believe that nationalists started the Troubles, but this campaign has also smoked out Labour and the Social Democrats as parties that are starting to think seriously about Irish unity. If either one of them backs an FF-FG coalition, then the net result of this election is an Irish government more committed to the process of Irish unity than the last one. A slim net gain for United Irelanders.
5. This was not the election to win. There’s an African proverb that when the elephants fight, it’s the ground that suffers. The election of Donald Trumppromises four years of chaos that could well play out on Ireland’s auld sod. His promised trade tariffs and bid to onshore US jobs could spell major trouble for the Irish economy, which is so heavily dependent on US investment. Mercifully, the Great Disruptor only has four years left in the White House, so the damage he can inflict is time limited. Still, it’s going to be a bumpy one for the new Irish government.
Perhaps 2029 is the real change election…
Kevin Meagher reflects on that election and is already thinking about the next one!
1. First and foremost, this was not a ‘change’ election. Older Irish voters are a contented lot. And content, certainly, to let their children and grandchildren swing in an overheated housing market that is forcing many to flee the country in despair. So, apple carts were unturned. Traces left unkicked. And with a miserly turnout of just 59.7%, the Irish were not desperate enough for change, so didn’t vote for it.
2. The tortoise won. It’s hard to fathom what Micheál Martin’s political superpower is. He’s the very opposite of charisma. Quiet, dry and thoroughly boring – what’s the appeal? Staying power, presumably, which he has(admittedly) in abundance. First place with 48 seats is a win, whichever way you cut it. At 64 years of age, the question is whether he intends staying around for the next five years? If Martin retires, it might see the Soldiers of Destiny revert to a more reliably ‘green’ leader which might in turn have implications for how long the new (inevitable) FFFG coalition lasts.
3. What did Sinn Fein get wrong? A surge of support saw them top the popular vote at the 2020 election, followed by four years of healthy opinion poll leads, seeing them rise as high as 37 percent. So, the 19 percent they achieved this time around is impossible to explain away as anything other than a calamitous decline in fortunes. While running a slick campaign, SF failed to reassure older voters that it was a fit party of government, while forfeiting other parts of its electoral base in defence of its unwavering support for mass immigration. Big lessons to learn.
4. United Irelanders did pretty well. In addition to SF landing in second place with 39 seats, Aontú won two, with ex-Sinn Feiners, Brian Stanley and Carol Nolan, also triumphing. Micheál Martin might believe that nationalists started the Troubles, but this campaign has also smoked out Labour and the Social Democrats as parties that are starting to think seriously about Irish unity. If either one of them backs an FF-FG coalition, then the net result of this election is an Irish government more committed to the process of Irish unity than the last one. A slim net gain for United Irelanders.
5. This was not the election to win. There’s an African proverb that when the elephants fight, it’s the ground that suffers. The election of Donald Trumppromises four years of chaos that could well play out on Ireland’s auld sod. His promised trade tariffs and bid to onshore US jobs could spell major trouble for the Irish economy, which is so heavily dependent on US investment. Mercifully, the Great Disruptor only has four years left in the White House, so the damage he can inflict is time limited. Still, it’s going to be a bumpy one for the new Irish government.
Perhaps 2029 is the real change election…