Professor Jon Tonge recently reported that his survey of Alliance party members showed a majority believe there will be and should be a border poll in the next decade. Eóin Tennyson, newly elected Deputy Leader of the party, stated in an interview with the Belfast Telegraph published on 28th October that Alliance would have a ‘leadership role’ in navigating the Irish unity discussion. He indicated that the party would look at the evidence and then decide whether to take an active role in the campaign. Lord Alderdice, former leader of Alliance, has publicly stated that he does not think it is credible for the party to sit out a border poll campaign. His view is that the party will need to take a position, as the referendum will address the most significant historic, constitutional and political issue. He has also said that he believes there is an “almost inexorable trajectory towards a united Ireland.”
I am a former member of the Alliance party and was briefly a member of the party’s Executive, before work commitments forced me to stand down. It had always been my assumption that when a border poll is called, the Alliance party would not take a position and instead would encourage members including elected representatives to vote with their conscience. However I think that these comments make it much more likely that Alliance will take a position when the border poll is called. Should the party choose to do so, it will not be able to return to the previous non-aligned position after the referendum. Whatever position it takes, it will want to ensure that it is on the winning side as it cannot put the constitutional genie back in the bottle afterwards. If the party adopts a pro-unity position in a referendum and the people of Ireland, North and South, vote for reunification, then we will be into a new political dispensation. It will be one where Alliance can state that the constitutional position has been settled and they can focus on bread and butter issues.
We know that the party is strongly pro-European and opposed to Brexit. It has also historically enjoyed a close relationship with Fine Gael and is a sister party to Fianna Fáil. The party has shown a comfort level in working with Sinn Féin in both the Northern Ireland Executive and on Belfast City Council. There are party members who remain Unionist in their outlook but if we consider the party now, to the one which was led by John Alderdice, it is I believe much more sympathetic to the prospect of a United Ireland. Indeed Lord Alderdice as he is now, has publicly stated that the British political establishment no longer holds any special affection for Northern Ireland. It is a not a question of actively seeking to discount the region. Instead it is simply that Northern Ireland does not feature on the political radar of Britain to any great extent.
There are no close links between Northern Ireland parties and those in Britain. While Alliance is the sister party of the Liberal Democrats and the SDLP is the sister party of the British Labour party, from an operational perspective they are separate. From 1905 until 1972, the Ulster Unionist Party took the Conservative whip at Westminster. In effect the UUP was the Conservative party branch in Northern Ireland. But the relationship broke down over disagreements about the Sunningdale Agreement.
Alliance is open to all-island solutions when it believes that it is in the best interests of the people who live in Northern Ireland to adopt such an approach. There is no ideological opposition to taking an all-island approach to healthcare, education, or the economy. Theparty wants everyone in Northern Ireland to be able to fully benefit from membership of the European Union. This is only going to be possible through reunification as there no appetite within either the Labour or Conservative parties to reopen the debate about EU membership in Britain.
It is hard to think of the reasons why Alliance would campaign to remain part of the UK in the current circumstances. We are directly seeing the impact of Britain’s dire financial circumstances. The funding to redevelop Casement Park has not been provided, two of the region’s city deals have been paused and the NI Executive continues to be put under pressure to find more savings, when there is cross-party agreement that the region is being funded below the level of need.
We know that currently the voting blocs within Northern Ireland are roughly forty percent for Unionism, forty percent for Nationalism and around twenty percent non-aligned. Alliance is the largest part of the non-aligned bloc and its voter base is therefore likely to play a decisive role in a border poll vote. Alliance and its elected representatives can reach parts of the voting base which has a Unionist background in a way which Sinn Féin in particular cannot do. Alliance is well respected in the Republic for its long-term commitment to being cross-community, non-sectarian and its anti-violence approach to politics. The abuse which the party received during 2012’s flag protests was unwarranted and showed that their elected representatives would not be bullied into changing their minds through violence or threats of violence.
It is ironic that Alliance has been on the receiving end of severe criticism from both unionists and nationalists, for being a nationalist or unionist party in disguise. Unionists will often criticise Alliance for adopting policy positions which are in alignment with Sinn Féin but will claim that Alliance voters would vote to remain part of the UK in a border poll. Nationalists were hurt and angry at Naomi Long’s decision to pull out of an Ireland’s Future event in Belfast, at short notice in June 2024. There are also those within Nationalism who take the view that as Alliance claims to be non-aligned on constitutional issues, that in effect means that they favour the status quo, i.e. remaining part of the UK.
While you can argue whether Alliance is truly non-aligned or does effectively take a constitutional position, you cannot dispute that in a border poll, the party has the potential to guide the region into a united Ireland or to remain part of the UK. Alliance has been criticised for being too idealised in its views and there have been suggestions that the “Alliance Surge” has stalled since the 2022 Assembly elections. Taking a decisive position on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland during a border poll, but doing so from the perspective of what will create the best outcomes for all citizens of Northern Ireland, could be a defining moment for Alliance and Ireland. A reunification process with Alliance at the centre would be a much sweeter pill for Unionists to swallow, than one led by a Sinn Féin party leading both governments. The apparent decline in support for Sinn Féin in the Republic counterintuitively makes Irish unity more likely.
Precisely because Alliance has not formally taken a constitutional position until now, it could make the biggest impact in a border poll campaign. In many ways Alliance could be the Goldilocks of Irish politics because it can determine whether the constitutional options are too hot, too cold or just right.
Professor Jon Tonge recently reported that his survey of Alliance party members showed a majority believe there will be and should be a border poll in the next decade. Eóin Tennyson, newly elected Deputy Leader of the party, stated in an interview with the Belfast Telegraph published on 28th October that Alliance would have a ‘leadership role’ in navigating the Irish unity discussion. He indicated that the party would look at the evidence and then decide whether to take an active role in the campaign. Lord Alderdice, former leader of Alliance, has publicly stated that he does not think it is credible for the party to sit out a border poll campaign. His view is that the party will need to take a position, as the referendum will address the most significant historic, constitutional and political issue. He has also said that he believes there is an “almost inexorable trajectory towards a united Ireland.”
I am a former member of the Alliance party and was briefly a member of the party’s Executive, before work commitments forced me to stand down. It had always been my assumption that when a border poll is called, the Alliance party would not take a position and instead would encourage members including elected representatives to vote with their conscience. However I think that these comments make it much more likely that Alliance will take a position when the border poll is called. Should the party choose to do so, it will not be able to return to the previous non-aligned position after the referendum. Whatever position it takes, it will want to ensure that it is on the winning side as it cannot put the constitutional genie back in the bottle afterwards. If the party adopts a pro-unity position in a referendum and the people of Ireland, North and South, vote for reunification, then we will be into a new political dispensation. It will be one where Alliance can state that the constitutional position has been settled and they can focus on bread and butter issues.
We know that the party is strongly pro-European and opposed to Brexit. It has also historically enjoyed a close relationship with Fine Gael and is a sister party to Fianna Fáil. The party has shown a comfort level in working with Sinn Féin in both the Northern Ireland Executive and on Belfast City Council. There are party members who remain Unionist in their outlook but if we consider the party now, to the one which was led by John Alderdice, it is I believe much more sympathetic to the prospect of a United Ireland. Indeed Lord Alderdice as he is now, has publicly stated that the British political establishment no longer holds any special affection for Northern Ireland. It is a not a question of actively seeking to discount the region. Instead it is simply that Northern Ireland does not feature on the political radar of Britain to any great extent.
There are no close links between Northern Ireland parties and those in Britain. While Alliance is the sister party of the Liberal Democrats and the SDLP is the sister party of the British Labour party, from an operational perspective they are separate. From 1905 until 1972, the Ulster Unionist Party took the Conservative whip at Westminster. In effect the UUP was the Conservative party branch in Northern Ireland. But the relationship broke down over disagreements about the Sunningdale Agreement.
Alliance is open to all-island solutions when it believes that it is in the best interests of the people who live in Northern Ireland to adopt such an approach. There is no ideological opposition to taking an all-island approach to healthcare, education, or the economy. Theparty wants everyone in Northern Ireland to be able to fully benefit from membership of the European Union. This is only going to be possible through reunification as there no appetite within either the Labour or Conservative parties to reopen the debate about EU membership in Britain.
It is hard to think of the reasons why Alliance would campaign to remain part of the UK in the current circumstances. We are directly seeing the impact of Britain’s dire financial circumstances. The funding to redevelop Casement Park has not been provided, two of the region’s city deals have been paused and the NI Executive continues to be put under pressure to find more savings, when there is cross-party agreement that the region is being funded below the level of need.
We know that currently the voting blocs within Northern Ireland are roughly forty percent for Unionism, forty percent for Nationalism and around twenty percent non-aligned. Alliance is the largest part of the non-aligned bloc and its voter base is therefore likely to play a decisive role in a border poll vote. Alliance and its elected representatives can reach parts of the voting base which has a Unionist background in a way which Sinn Féin in particular cannot do. Alliance is well respected in the Republic for its long-term commitment to being cross-community, non-sectarian and its anti-violence approach to politics. The abuse which the party received during 2012’s flag protests was unwarranted and showed that their elected representatives would not be bullied into changing their minds through violence or threats of violence.
It is ironic that Alliance has been on the receiving end of severe criticism from both unionists and nationalists, for being a nationalist or unionist party in disguise. Unionists will often criticise Alliance for adopting policy positions which are in alignment with Sinn Féin but will claim that Alliance voters would vote to remain part of the UK in a border poll. Nationalists were hurt and angry at Naomi Long’s decision to pull out of an Ireland’s Future event in Belfast, at short notice in June 2024. There are also those within Nationalism who take the view that as Alliance claims to be non-aligned on constitutional issues, that in effect means that they favour the status quo, i.e. remaining part of the UK.
While you can argue whether Alliance is truly non-aligned or does effectively take a constitutional position, you cannot dispute that in a border poll, the party has the potential to guide the region into a united Ireland or to remain part of the UK. Alliance has been criticised for being too idealised in its views and there have been suggestions that the “Alliance Surge” has stalled since the 2022 Assembly elections. Taking a decisive position on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland during a border poll, but doing so from the perspective of what will create the best outcomes for all citizens of Northern Ireland, could be a defining moment for Alliance and Ireland. A reunification process with Alliance at the centre would be a much sweeter pill for Unionists to swallow, than one led by a Sinn Féin party leading both governments. The apparent decline in support for Sinn Féin in the Republic counterintuitively makes Irish unity more likely.
Precisely because Alliance has not formally taken a constitutional position until now, it could make the biggest impact in a border poll campaign. In many ways Alliance could be the Goldilocks of Irish politics because it can determine whether the constitutional options are too hot, too cold or just right.